Doubts swirl around G7's building plan

A plan by the Group of Seven nations to help developing countries scale up infrastructure should complement, not replace, the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative, which has forged deep ties in many parts of the world, according to experts.

Although some may wish that projects to emerge from the G7 plan could be paired with the BRI, the potential conditions attached to financial aid from the West would likely make many nations ultimately conclude that sticking with the BRI is more beneficial.

Arhama Siddiqa, a research fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad in Pakistan, said the "Build Back Better World" program, or B3W, that the G7 adopted on June 12 at a summit in London must look at strategic objectives and interests that could align with the BRI in areas such as economic development.

"Middle Eastern states do not depend on financial support from either China or the US," said Siddiqa, adding these nations' main goals are aimed at their respective rejuvenation projects and reducing their dependence on oil.

Still, developing economies－including those in the Gulf region－seeking new development paths to reduce their reliance on oil could face a balancing act in their relations with the West and China.

China could be a more reliable partner, the analyst said, as was evident from Washington's withdrawal of support to Saudi-led military operations in Yemen during US President Joe Biden's first weeks in office.

The B3W plan－revealed by the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Japan－is aimed at helping to narrow the $40 trillion gap in infrastructure needed in developing countries. The program is forecast to rival the Beijing-initiated BRI, introduced in 2013 by President Xi Jinping to promote better linkages between Asia, Europe and Africa through infrastructure-related projects.

In his July 1 speech marking the centenary of the Communist Party of China, Xi, who is also general secretary of the Party, again spoke of promoting open, clean and high-quality BRI development "through joint efforts".

Karori Singh, a former director and emeritus fellow of South Asia Studies Centre at India's University of Rajasthan, noted Xi's emphasis on cooperation between nations, rather than competition.

Singh quoted Xi as saying "China's new achievements in development" will provide the world with new opportunities, adding that the BRI has demonstrated "a clear resolve for close cooperation and collaboration in enforcing multilateralism".

Farhan Mujahid Chak, an associate professor of political science in the Gulf Studies Centre at Qatar University, said it "would be more productive" for the G7 to join the BRI and contribute toward global economic development, rather than "to compete and undermine it".

"The linkages of the Middle East and China are growing, and the trend is that this trajectory is likely to intensify," Chak said.

The Green Belt and Road Initiative Center, which advises on ecologically friendly BRI projects, reported that, as of January, at least 140 countries and regions have signed memorandums of understanding related to the BRI and that 17 of those nations were from the Middle East.

The B3W, according to a White House fact sheet, will cover nations from Latin America and the Caribbean to parts of Africa and Asia.

'Potentially important'

Scott Livermore, chief economist at Oxford Economics Middle East, said the B3W can "provide a potentially important source of funding for development plans", especially to low- to middle-income countries in the Middle East. But a critical element will be the accessibility of funds and the conditions attached to the program, he said.

"If the countries can use the funding in addition to BRI infrastructure investment, then it could be quite beneficial," Livermore said.

However, Chak said the emphasis in the B3W slogan－Building Back a Better World－was on "back". The aim, Chak said, seemed to be "bringing back Western hegemony in order to maintain their privilege and power".

Even if the program generates the kind of support and enthusiasm the B3W leaders want, Chak does not think it will replace the BRI.

Siddiqa said there is no doubt that the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goal 2030 Agenda needs substantial external means of financing from rich nations.

Siddiqa noted that as Biden's aid proposal "will be attached to conditions circling around human rights, climate change, corruption and the rule of law", developing countries "would rather choose China" because of its nonintrusive policies.

However, if the B3W is pushed hard, Siddiqa said, Middle Eastern countries may be forced to take industry-specific sides, citing the case of the Chinese-backed digital version of the BRI, the Digital Silk Road.

She said this led to the "bifurcation between the West and China" in global telecom infrastructure, as was highlighted by the efforts of the US and the UK to encourage a boycott of Chinese technology giant Huawei Technologies.

Against this backdrop, Singh said the B3W and the BRI "must operate in tandem rather than opposition to ensure development and well-being of the people in developing countries for a harmonious, peaceful and prosperous world."