Japanese GDP shrinks 4.8% over year

TOKYO－Japan's pandemic-hit economy shrank in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade, but the contraction was less than expected and it ended the year on a strong note thanks to a pickup in exports and huge government support.

Still, analysts warned the near-term outlook could be bumpy as fresh virus restrictions dampen domestic consumption. Borders are still closed to tourists less than six months before the once-postponed Olympics.

The world's third-largest economy shrank 4.8 percent last year, its first annual contraction since 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis.

The figure was better than forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts thanks to a strong October-December performance, which saw the economy expand 12.7 percent from the previous quarter on an annualized basis.

Government stimulus measures of about $3 trillion since the COVID-19 pandemic began provided crucial support.

The news helped send Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index rallying more than 1 percent to break 30,000 for the first time in more than three decades.

Shahana Mukherjee, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said better-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter was driven by Japan's "resilient trade position" with exports up and a smaller rise in private consumption.

"The intense domestic third COVID-19 wave moderated Japan's recovery momentum in the last months of 2020," she said.

"But with exports continuing to recover and the Pfizer vaccine approval coming through, the months ahead should see a stronger revival," Mukherjee added.

Like other countries, Japan was plunged into a steep recession at the start of 2020－suffering its worst second quarter on record－as virus containment measures throttled economic activity. A 2019 consumption tax added to the weakness.

A slowdown in new cases allowed business to bounce back in the second half, with domestic demand and net exports contributing to the improvement, the cabinet office said.

However, infections began surging to new records in late December, prompting the government to impose a fresh virus state of emergency in much of the country including Tokyo and Osaka. While the long-term outlook is positive, there was a warning for the start of 2021.

"A decline in GDP appears unavoidable in Q1 2021 due to the state of emergency declared by the government in a number of Japanese prefectures," Naoya Oshikubo, senior economist at SuMi Trust, said in a note published ahead of Monday's figure.

Japan's virus measures are limited, with bars and restaurants requested but not obliged to close by 8 pm while working from home is strongly recommended. There are no blanket stay-at-home orders.

Agencies Via Xinhua