Optimism in Australia and NZ as spread slows

Health authorities in Australia and New Zealand have expressed cautious optimism that they have slowed the spread of the deadly novel coronavirus.

While it is still early days the numbers of reported new COVID-19 cases are starting to go down when compared to previous weeks, a trend that health experts say is encouraging. But they warn against people becoming complacent. They say the real test will be over the Easter break.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his New Zealand counterpart Jacinda Ardern have both said this past week that while they have been lucky, only time will tell.

So far, the policies Australia and New Zealand implemented early in the COVID-19 crisis such as closing borders, implementing strict social distancing, restricting the number of people at gatherings and the movement of people have worked.

In Australia, the drop in daily confirmed cases is "real", said Sanjaya Senanayake, an infectious diseases specialist with the Australian National University in Canberra.

"It has only been a few days, but it appears to be a genuine downward trend," he said. "We now have one of the highest, if not the highest, testing rates in the world of around 10,000 tests per million population, so this is unlikely to reflect under-testing."

He said the main reason for this trend is most likely the travel restrictions that have been placed. "This is on the basis of most of our cases having been acquired overseas," he said.

"I would also hope that the more general social distancing measures that have been installed will also contribute to a decline in cases. Now that testing can be diverted from overseas-acquired infections, there is now an opportunity to start focusing on identifying locally acquired cases with enhanced surveillance, since there are pockets of local transmission within certain areas such as Bondi in Sydney."

Australia's chief health officer professor Brendan Murphy said at his daily news conference on April 5: "We're increasingly confident that if people continue to adhere to what we've been asking them to do we can prevent a situation like we've seen in many other countries of the world."

Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland, said he believed Australia has seen the peak in cases.

He told China Daily whether that will be maintained will depend on what happens over the next couple of weeks.

On April 7, Ardern, in an address to the nation, said New Zealand had been successful in stopping the virus from getting out of control.

She said the growth in the number of new cases in New Zealand of the coronavirus remains "relatively consistent" and that it "suggests that what we are doing as a nation is working".

Otago University professor Michael Baker said New Zealand is looking like the only Western country with a chance of eradicating COVID-19.

A leading authority on public heath, he said the goal of the elimination strategy is to not have any circulating virus in New Zealand.