Global General

Tropical storm Frank unlikely to land in Mexico

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-08-24 11:16
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MEXICO CITY -- Tropical Storm Frank, which caused floods in Mexico's southern neighbor Guatemala, is unlikely to come ashore although it will certainly cause inclement conditions in Mexico, a government forecaster said Monday.

"It is moving parallel to the coast and looks set to remain 200-250 kilometers offshore," Miguel Angel Gallegos from the state-run National Meteorological Service (SMN) said.

He added that SMN forecasters had run 10 different numerical models of the storm, and there appears to be a less than 8 percent chance of a direct impact on the Mexican shore.

Mexico's National Civil Protection System, run by the Interior Ministry, has issued a green alert for the storm, the second lowest warning on a scale of five, for the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero along the Southern Pacific. These states are set for high tides of up to four meters and stronger-than-average rain.

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However, the storm is a long way from causing damage like that caused in June by Hurricane Alex, which brought three northeast states to a standstill, killing 27 people across the country and 10 people in Central America.

"It has been a normal year for tropical cyclones in the Pacific. We were expecting 15, and now at mid-season we have had eight, including Frank," Gallegos said.

Many in Mexico had been expecting an unusually severe hurricane season, after Tropical Storm Agatha appeared in the Pacific in late June, before the official start of the hurricane season.

"In the Atlantic we have only seen six cyclones," Gallegos said. "We are expecting a total of 18. We are expecting more activity in the Atlantic later in the season because the La Nina phenomenon makes the Atlantic more active," he added.

La Nina, an above average cooling of the Pacific Ocean's waters, tends to calm activity in the Pacific and cause a compensating boost in activity in the Atlantic Ocean. It is the counterpart of the El Nino effect, which heats the Pacific, making it more active.

Gallegos explained that the irregular weather phenomena are becoming more frequent, although it is unclear if it is linked to climate change, a broader heating of all the world's water and air caused by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.

"When it was first described, it was thought that it was every seven years, but then it was observed very five years and then every two years," Gallegos said. "The idea that it has a regular pattern has been replaced by the idea that it is fickle."

Current thinking is that the phenomena are part of an even larger pattern called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Scientists now believe that La Nina may cause heavier rains in Asia's coastal areas. Forecasters now measure the ocean temperatures directly to see if a Nino or Nina has occurred, rather than counting on it to match a cycle.