Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group, said the new jobs report showed a number of other labor market strains, including the sixth straight monthly increase in the number of workers taking part-time jobs because they could not find full-time positions. That figure now stands at its highest level in 14 years.
Nigel Gault, chief US economist at Global Insight, said he believed the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, fell by a small 0.1 percent at an annual rate in the January-March quarter this year, and would drop at a larger 0.7 percent rate in the current quarter. By one classic definition, a recession occurs when GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters.
Gault said he expected a mild recession that will end when tax rebate checks are spent this summer. He said he wasn't looking for as big a rise in unemployment as the 2001 downturn because companies have not added as many workers to their payrolls during the current expansion.
"We think companies are starting from a leaner position so they won't have to lay off as many people," he said.
