JERUSALEM - Israelis Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will face fierce criticism
when a government commission releases its first findings Monday on last year's
inconclusive war in Lebanon, officials said, raising pressure on the Israeli
leader to step down.
 Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
delivers a speech during a ceremony marking the anniversary of Theodor
Herzl's birth in 1860, the founder of modern Zionism, at Mount Herzl
cemetery in Jerusalem, Sunday, April 29, 2007. [AP]
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Leaked sections of findings
prompted a new round of resignation calls Sunday from both the opposition and
members of Olmert's governing coalition.
Officials close to the investigation, confirming Israeli TV reports, said the
report would be tough on both Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz.
Among the findings are that both men made hasty and ill-judged decisions at
the outset of the war, and these errors were compounded by their lack of
experience and unfamiliarity with defense issues, the officials said.
Olmert reluctantly appointed the commission of inquiry in September under
intense pressure from a public dissatisfied with the outcome of the 34-day war,
which began when Hezbollah guerrillas captured two Israeli soldiers and killed
three others in a July 12 cross-border raid.
Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Vice Premier Shimon Peres pledged that the
report's findings would be taken seriously. "We shall correct everything that
calls for correction," he said.
The interim report will analyze the first six days of the fighting, when the
war's objectives were formulated, and the six years between Israel's May 2000
pullout from southern Lebanon and the outbreak of the conflict. The full report
on the entire war is to be released in the summer.
The war failed to achieve two aims Olmert set - crushing the Islamic militant
Hezbollah and returning the two captured soldiers. The military also has been
criticized for failing to stop Hezbollah from bombarding northern Israel with
almost 4,000 rockets, and soldiers returning from battle complained of a lack of
supplies, poor preparation and conflicting orders.
Although the commission, headed by a retired judge, Eliyahu Winograd, does
not have the power to dismiss officials, a disparaging report could spark mass
protests and force Olmert and the equally unpopular Peretz to resign. Widespread
criticism already led the wartime military chief, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, to step
down in January, and demonstrations against Olmert were expected this week.
Neither Olmert nor Peretz have military backgrounds, and the fighting erupted
less than two months after they took office. The report will not call for any
resignations, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because it
has not been made public.
It will say that Halutz did not provide political leaders with a sufficient
range of military options, played down the rocket threat and silenced dissenting
opinions within the army command, Israeli media said.
Olmert's office declined comment until the report's official publication, but
aides said the prime minister had no intention of quitting.
Following the initial leaks, Olmert faced a fresh chorus of resignation calls
Sunday, both from the opposition and members of Peretz' Labor party, which is in
the governing coalition. Two opposition lawmakers said they planned to submit
bills to dissolve parliament and force early elections.
While Olmert remains deeply unpopular - his government has been plagued by a
series of sex and corruption scandals - he may be able to survive since his
coalition partners might prefer to keep the unpopular prime minister in power
rather than face a disgruntled electorate.
Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the hard-line Likud
Party, would sweep to victory if new elections are held, according to polls in
Israeli newspapers.
In the meantime, the war's heavy toll still reverberates. Between 1,035 and
1,191 Lebanese civilians and combatants were killed, as were 119 Israeli
soldiers and 39 civilians.
The confrontation began with almost universal Israeli support, but that
splintered as troops came back with reports that fighters were ill-trained and
ill-equipped, hampered by confused orders and lacking basics like bullets and
water.
Halutz, a former air force commander, was criticized for relying too heavily
on air attacks that caused heavy Lebanese casualties and damage without smashing
Hezbollah. The military was also faulted for sending ground troops into a major
battle just hours before a UN-brokered truce was signed - an operation that cost
the lives of more than 30 soldiers with questionable results.
Finally, the campaign's inconclusive outcome caused Israelis to rethink the
wisdom of launching an all-out offensive to try to retrieve two soldiers.
Olmert gave seven hours of testimony in February before the commission in a
closed-door hearing widely perceived as his last chance to stave off censure.
Last month, Olmert acknowledged his lack of popularity, but declared he would
not step aside. "Though we are in the midst of the hunting season, I am sorry to
disappoint my detractors - I am here to lead," he said.
Because the report will dwell heavily on the years preceding the war, Arye
Carmon, head of the Israel Democracy Institute, said he didn't expect it to
precipitate a major political upheaval.
"What we faced in July was decided several years ago," Carmon said. "I don't
believe that (the report) will bring about the end of his
tenure."