TEHRAN - Iran will seek to show a nation united behind its nuclear program on
Sunday but pressure from the West and voices counselling caution at home have
dampened prospects for a grand announcement about atomic progress.
Iranian artists perform as they hold up samples of enriched
uranium in Mashad, east of Tehran, April 11, 2006. Iran will seek to show
a nation united behind its nuclear program on Sunday but pressure from the
West and voices counselling caution at home have dampened prospects for a
grand announcement about atomic progress. [Reuters]
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Iran marks the anniversary of the
1979 Islamic revolution and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's promise to celebrate
the "establishing of Iran's nuclear program" had prompted talk of a major
announcement.
Some analysts expected Tehran to announce it had begun installing 3,000
centrifuges, which can make fuel for power stations or material for nuclear
warheads, in defiance of Western demands to halt a program it fears is a front
for bomb-making.
But one senior official said Tehran had no intention of announcing such a
provocative step because it could block a political solution and hasten more
penalties in the nuclear standoff with the West.
Ahmadinejad, who is not the most powerful figure in Iran despite his
headline-grabbing speeches against the West and Israel, has faced mounting
public criticism in Iran since December when a UN sanctions resolution was
passed and when his supporters were trounced in local council polls.
Critics say his rhetoric has helped push Iran toward international isolation,
although the final say in policy lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, not the president.
"To avoid upping the stakes in the nuclear standoff with the West, there will
only be a nationwide rally on Sunday," the senior government official told
Reuters.
Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani also suggested in comments in a
newspaper that the focus on Sunday would be to "show that the Iranian nation is
supporting the nuclear issue."
Larijani said he would hold talks with "Western parties" at a conference in
Germany starting Friday, the first such meetings since sanctions were imposed.
European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who led failed efforts to
coax Iran to an atomic deal last year, said he was open to a meeting.
Analysts say Tehran's new caution partly shows the growing influence of more
moderate or pragmatic voices among the ruling elite since December. But they say
Iran remains determined to master atomic technology even if tactics to achieve
this change.
Among the pragmatists is Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a cleric beaten in the
2005 presidential race but whose political fortunes have revived as
Ahmadinejad's have dipped. He talks of Iran's atomic rights but warns against
"inciting the enemies."
Tehran says it only wants to make fuel for nuclear power plants.
FEARING AN ESCALATION
Iran runs two cascades of 164 centrifuges that have enriched tiny quantities
of uranium. But diplomats in Vienna, home of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), say Iran has recently set up two more cascades, the first stage
of plans to build thousands and start "industrial-scale" enrichment.
For failing to halt that work, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on
Iran and gave it until February 21 to suspend enrichment or face further
measures.
Some expect Iran to declare it has expanded atomic work before any
compromise.
"They will make a celebration and then, from a position of strength, they can
go for a deal," said political analyst Nasser Hadian-Jazy, who said he expected
Iran would announce some nuclear advance, such as the installation of new
centrifuges.
The UN sanctions barred the transfer of sensitive material and know-how to
Iran's nuclear program. But economists see a wider impact with already meager
investment flows drying up because foreign and Iranian businesses fear an
escalation.
Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter, is enjoying windfall oil
revenues but priming the economy with petrodollars is fuelling inflation and not
creating jobs, economists add.
"I am not sure whether Iranians are ready to tolerate further economic
isolation," said economist Saeed leylaz.
The United States has increased the pressure with sanctions on two Iranian
state banks and by ordering a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf, sparking talk
of a pre-emptive US strike.
Washington insists it wants a political solution but US officials have not
ruled out force. Khamenei said on Thursday Tehran would target US interests
around the world if attacked.