Iran to rally for nuke celebrations

(Reuters)
Updated: 2007-02-09 21:50

TEHRAN - Iran will seek to show a nation united behind its nuclear program on Sunday but pressure from the West and voices counselling caution at home have dampened prospects for a grand announcement about atomic progress.

Iranian artists perform as they hold up samples of enriched uranium in Mashad, east of Tehran, April 11, 2006. Iran will seek to show a nation united behind its nuclear program on Sunday but pressure from the West and voices counselling caution at home have dampened prospects for a grand announcement about atomic progress. (Stringer/Reuters
Iranian artists perform as they hold up samples of enriched uranium in Mashad, east of Tehran, April 11, 2006. Iran will seek to show a nation united behind its nuclear program on Sunday but pressure from the West and voices counselling caution at home have dampened prospects for a grand announcement about atomic progress. [Reuters]
Iran marks the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's promise to celebrate the "establishing of Iran's nuclear program" had prompted talk of a major announcement.

Some analysts expected Tehran to announce it had begun installing 3,000 centrifuges, which can make fuel for power stations or material for nuclear warheads, in defiance of Western demands to halt a program it fears is a front for bomb-making.

But one senior official said Tehran had no intention of announcing such a provocative step because it could block a political solution and hasten more penalties in the nuclear standoff with the West.

Ahmadinejad, who is not the most powerful figure in Iran despite his headline-grabbing speeches against the West and Israel, has faced mounting public criticism in Iran since December when a UN sanctions resolution was passed and when his supporters were trounced in local council polls.

Critics say his rhetoric has helped push Iran toward international isolation, although the final say in policy lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not the president.

"To avoid upping the stakes in the nuclear standoff with the West, there will only be a nationwide rally on Sunday," the senior government official told Reuters.

Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani also suggested in comments in a newspaper that the focus on Sunday would be to "show that the Iranian nation is supporting the nuclear issue."

Larijani said he would hold talks with "Western parties" at a conference in Germany starting Friday, the first such meetings since sanctions were imposed. European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who led failed efforts to coax Iran to an atomic deal last year, said he was open to a meeting.

Analysts say Tehran's new caution partly shows the growing influence of more moderate or pragmatic voices among the ruling elite since December. But they say Iran remains determined to master atomic technology even if tactics to achieve this change.

Among the pragmatists is Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a cleric beaten in the 2005 presidential race but whose political fortunes have revived as Ahmadinejad's have dipped. He talks of Iran's atomic rights but warns against "inciting the enemies."

Tehran says it only wants to make fuel for nuclear power plants.

FEARING AN ESCALATION

Iran runs two cascades of 164 centrifuges that have enriched tiny quantities of uranium. But diplomats in Vienna, home of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), say Iran has recently set up two more cascades, the first stage of plans to build thousands and start "industrial-scale" enrichment.

For failing to halt that work, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran and gave it until February 21 to suspend enrichment or face further measures.

Some expect Iran to declare it has expanded atomic work before any compromise.

"They will make a celebration and then, from a position of strength, they can go for a deal," said political analyst Nasser Hadian-Jazy, who said he expected Iran would announce some nuclear advance, such as the installation of new centrifuges.

The UN sanctions barred the transfer of sensitive material and know-how to Iran's nuclear program. But economists see a wider impact with already meager investment flows drying up because foreign and Iranian businesses fear an escalation.

Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter, is enjoying windfall oil revenues but priming the economy with petrodollars is fuelling inflation and not creating jobs, economists add.

"I am not sure whether Iranians are ready to tolerate further economic isolation," said economist Saeed leylaz.

The United States has increased the pressure with sanctions on two Iranian state banks and by ordering a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf, sparking talk of a pre-emptive US strike.

Washington insists it wants a political solution but US officials have not ruled out force. Khamenei said on Thursday Tehran would target US interests around the world if attacked.



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