With crude prices falling and oil-field costs on the rise, major oil
companies have a big problem: sustaining their phenomenal profit growth.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell PLC and BP PLC have all relied on big
oil-price jumps to fuel a streak of handsome earnings gains and, in many cases,
record quarterly profits in recent years. The three companies reported combined
earnings of about $25 billion in the second quarter; in the third quarter of
last year, they earned about $25.4 billion.
Many of the world's biggest publicly traded oil companies report earnings
this week and are expected to post strong results, thanks to high crude prices.
U.S.-benchmark oil hit a record of nearly $80 a barrel this summer. (In
inflation-adjusted terms, oil was at its most expensive in 1980.) Since July,
though, crude prices have fallen about 25%, sapping the momentum from short-term
profit-growth potential at a time of rising costs and higher taxes. And if oil
prices continue to drop, that could drive new thinking among oil executives over
whether to pursue big tie-ups.
BP, which reports earnings Tuesday, estimates West Texas crude, a benchmark
oil type in the U.S., averaged about $70 a barrel for the quarter. That is still
higher than the average price a year ago of about $63. But current prices are
now hovering around $58. U.S. natural-gas prices and gross profit margins from
making refined products such as gasoline are also sharply lower than a year ago.
Even before the steep drop-off in prices, earnings had been blunted by side
effects of the commodities boom. Oil-field costs have skyrocketed for many
projects because of higher demand for everything from steel to software among
energy companies eager to cash in on the boom. Competition for new prospects has
heated up, ratcheting up auction prices for fresh exploration acreage.
If oil prices stabilize or drop further, cost inflation could also subside.
But costs generally take time to catch up with swings in commodity prices. That
poses a growing challenge to profitability in the short term.
Neil McMahon, a London-based oil analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, says recent
trends of lower commodity prices and higher costs mean quarterly results this
time around aren't likely to offer much positive surprises for investors. In a
note to clients Friday, he said he expects to see further evidence of cost
pressure when companies report this week.
A handful of big companies suffered significant production shortfalls in the
July-to-September quarter because of unplanned disruptions. BP partially shut
down its big Alaskan oil field because of pipeline corrosion there, crimping its
output and that of its biggest partners in the field, Exxon and ConocoPhillips.
Shell continues to suffer partial shutdowns in Nigeria, amid violent insurgency
attacks in that major oil-exporting nation.
Oppenheimer & Co. analysts expect the major oil companies to post
third-quarter earnings about 10% above results from a year ago but about 10%
lower than this year's second quarter because of production shortfalls, cost and
tax increases and moderating oil prices.
Many companies are expected to post higher profit margins from chemical
operations and from marketing, which includes sales at gasoline stations, partly
compensating for lackluster commodity prices.
If prices continue falling, two other big questions for investors may emerge:
Will the world's largest oil companies curb their generous share-buyback
programs? And will they start looking for acquisitions, now that share prices
have fallen along with commodity markets, making some targets look cheaper?
So far this year, BP has showered investors with $12.3 billion in buybacks
and dividends. In July, Exxon said it would increase spending on buybacks to $7
billion in the third quarter, up from $6 billion in the second quarter.
But shareholder payouts can be sensitive to commodity-price swings. For
instance, BP has said it expects to deliver about $65 billion to shareholders
through 2008 if crude sticks at $60 a barrel and if U.S. natural-gas prices and
refining margins stay lofty. Those expected proceeds would fall more than 20% if
commodity-price assumptions were revised down to the $40-a-barrel level.
Jeroen van der Veer, Shell's chief executive, has said repeatedly that he
didn't see value in making big purchases amid recent high oil prices. Monday, he
announced Shell had made an approach to the board of Shell's main Canadian
affiliate, with an offer to buy out minority shareholders for about C$7.7
billion, or about $6.8 billion.
In an interview, Mr. van der Veer said the timing of the approach was more
about creating long-term value, not about getting a bargain at Tuesday's lower
oil prices. He said the current oil price "is probably one component of a total
mix" of factors determining the decision to pursue the deal, and said Shell
hadn't changed its acquisition strategy.
Fanning speculation of a fresh round of oil-patch deals, Premier Oil PLC, a
small British independent oil company, said Monday it had received a buyout
proposal from an unnamed party. Premier, with a market capitalization of about
¡ê1 billion, or $1.9 billion, said negotiations were at "an extremely early
stage."