http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116157004693700582-LhLXQPZwGasjHEn20uOEqTrSsuk_20061030.html?mod=regionallinks
ROME
-- Despite international concerns about the Italian economy, Finance Minister
Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa brushed off recent downgrades of the country's debt and
said the coming budget bill would do much to fix Italy's twin ills of slow
growth and bloated public spending.
In an interview, Mr. Padoa-Schioppa said downgrades to Italy's sovereign
credit rating -- to A+ from Standard & Poor's and AA- from Fitch Ratings
last week -- were both based on out-of-date assessments. Ratings agencies are
limited in their ability to accurately understand Italy's situation because few
analysts who work at the companies speak Italian, said Mr. Padoa-Schioppa, a
former European central banker.
"I don't welcome these [downgrades], but I would not say it makes my job more
difficult because they were widely discounted by the market and myself."
Standard and Poor's downgraded Italy's debt to A+ with stable outlook from
AA-. Fitch downgraded to AA- with stable outlook from AA.
Instead, the minister said the budget bill he drafted, which must be approved
by Parliament by the end of the year, marks a crucial step toward improving the
economy and getting credit ratings back up. "With this budget, we have
eliminated the risk of being left behind," Mr. Padoa-Schioppa said, noting,
however, that "more time and more measures are needed to reach the front of the
group of runners."
The European Union has a lot riding on Mr. Padoa-Schioppa's ability to turn
around Italy's finances. Italy, the seventh-largest economy in the world and the
third-largest in the euro zone, has been among the worst performers in the EU
over the past 10 years, dragging down overall growth on the continent. At the
same time, its debt -- now at 108% of gross domestic product -- is highest among
the 12-nation euro zone and is rising again after shrinking for a decade.
Italy's debt has made it the weak link in the monetary union. Coupled with
its slow growth rate, the country is increasingly out of whack with the euro
zone, meaning that it is straining more than others under the common monetary
policy set by the European Central Bank. That has begun to hurt broader
confidence in the monetary union.
Criticism of the budget bill has risen since the draft was approved by the
government at the end of last month. The budget aims to raise £¿5 billion
($44.17 billion) through revenue-generating measures and spending cuts.
Rating agencies, business groups and Italy's central bank have criticized the
bill for relying too heavily on new tax revenue to bring the deficit in line
with EU budget rules and for being too timid in tackling waste in Italy's public
spending, which accounts for about 50% of all economic activity.
"Criticisms of the budget are not based on an accurate reading of the facts,"
Mr. Padoa-Schioppa said. He said only £¿ billion in this budget comes from new
taxes, while more than £¿ billion will be generated from measures to improve tax
collection and fight tax evasion.
Rating agencies say his prediction of recouping money from tax evasion -- a
problem that has bedeviled Italian governments for decades -- is unrealistic.
Though he acknowledged that increased revenue-generating measures in his
budget could slow Italy's growth rate next year slightly, he said the long-term
benefits of bringing public finances under control would greatly improve the
overall economy. Most importantly, he said, the budget would put Italy's
deficit, expected to total 4.8% of gross domestic product this year, on track to
return within the 3% ceiling set by the monetary union by 2007.
The EU has been the only authoritative voice to speak in favor,
provisionally, of the Italian budget so far.
As Mr. Padoa-Schioppa spoke, Finance Ministry employees gathered in the
ministry's courtyard and protested -- with whistles, horns and flags -- a
measure in the budget that is aimed at reducing the number of Finance Ministry
offices. "I know much better now how hard it is to reduce spending than I did
five months ago," he said.
Public protests against the budget and other economic measures passed by
Prime Minister Romano Prodi's center-left government, which took office in May
and holds a razor-thin majority in Parliament, are increasing. Thousands of
self-employed workers took to the streets last week, and bigger demonstrations
against the budget are slated for later this month.
Though criticism of the budget is straining relations within Mr. Prodi's
fractious eight-party coalition, Mr. Padoa-Schioppa said he was confident the
budget would be approved by Parliament without significant changes.
Once the budget is approved, Mr. Padoa-Schioppa said his main objective would
be to reach an agreement with the country's labor unions early next year on
getting Italians to work longer. Italy's aging population and generous state
pension system have contributed to making it the most indebted country in the
euro zone.