http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB115618416237941214-WL_NjCb0ZVwHI0AQFyZH2MPTUHU_20060829.html?mod=regionallinks
MUMBAI, India -- A recurrence of familiar old problems -- regulatory
roadblocks and foot-dragging by state-owned competitors -- is threatening to
cool expansion in India's red-hot cellphone sector and is frustrating
telecommunications investors.
While India has the world's fastest-growing cellphone industry, expanding
more than 50% a year and adding five million subscribers a month, slow-moving
regulators and state-run phone companies could stymie future expansion, industry
analysts and executives say.
Cellular companies are spending billions of dollars on infrastructure each
year to meet booming demand, but call quality in many areas is deteriorating
because of bureaucratic bottlenecks beyond their control. Consumers in some
cities complain that the quality of their service is deteriorating, with a
rising number of dropped calls and lousy reception. Meanwhile, cellphone
companies aren't raking in as much revenue as they could because connectivity
problems are jamming up networks and making it tougher to sell value-added
services such as those that let users download games.
The delays, while unlikely to derail the telecommunications sector, point to
the continued tendency of Indian politicians and regulators to meddle with even
the most liberalized industries. They also underscore the inability of the
state-run infrastructure to keep pace with booming private-sector growth.
Economists point to similar chokepoints across the economy -- such as
insufficient roads, ports and power -- that are bridling India's huge economic
potential.
Phone-company executives want Indian regulators to make it easier to expand
and to pressure the national state-run phone service to take steps needed to
give millions of new private-network subscribers access to the state-owned
network. Analysts say government-created barriers to growth are a throwback to a
more-socialist era in India, when industries were strangled by competition from
subsidized state-owned companies and too many rules from bureaucrats -- known as
babus here.
"The history of the telecom industry in India is that babudom and the
public-sector companies have conspired to make life tough for the private
sector," says John Band, president of Zoom Cortex, a financial consultancy here
in India's commercial capital. He says the situation has worsened since Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh's coalition government -- which includes Communist and
other leftist parties -- took power in 2004: "On all policy matters to do with
liberalization, this government is the prisoner of the left."
The left-wing parties that support Mr. Singh's Congress-party-led coalition
have been blocking many plans to revamp the Indian economy. They oppose foreign
and private-sector control of key Indian industries because they fear that will
lead to a loss of jobs and drain wealth from the country.
Ironically, India's telecommunications industry often has been cited as an
example of how deregulation can unshackle growth. It has been one of the biggest
corporate-success stories since the government opened the sector to private
investment in the 1990s, in part, because it was one of the first sectors in
India opened to foreign ownership.
The influx of foreign capital and technology and reduced restrictions on
competition have allowed the number of cellular users to more than triple over
the past three years. With India's economy expanding more than 7% a year
recently and the aspirations of the growing middle class soaring, India now has
more than 100 million subscribers among its one-billion-plus population and
demand could double in the next two years, industry analysts say.
"Many, many people in India have never heard a dial tone," so they jump at
the chance for cellular service once it reaches their small town or village,
says Manoj Kohli, president of Bharti Airtel Ltd., the largest Indian cellphone
company in terms of numbers of subscribers, which plans to add about 1,500 towns
to its network this year.
The higher-than-expected growth has caught the industry unprepared and call
quality has suffered. "The quality of service is definitely an issue" at most
Indian cellular companies, says Nripendra Misra, chairman of the Telecom
Regulatory Authority of India in New Delhi. "They had never, ever expected this
kind of growth rate."
While the agency this year reprimanded private-sector cellular companies for
unacceptable service, operators say they can't maintain the quality of calls
because of foot-dragging by the government-run national phone network, Bharat
Sanchar Nigam Ltd. They say BSNL, which operates the largest landline services
outside New Delhi and Mumbai and is the country's third-largest cellular
provider, must invest more in the equipment for connections between its network
and others. Analysts say the reason is a combination of BSNL being a slow
state-run company and its desire to thwart the advance of private-sector
competitors.
Phone companies -- including India's fourth-largest cellular company,
Hutchison Essar Ltd., which is 45%-owned by Hutchison Telecommunications
International Ltd. of Hong Kong, and Bharti Airtel, in which Singapore
Telecommunications Ltd. owns a 31% stake -- plan to spend more than $12 billion
in the next four years to meet demand. They say they need state-owned BSNL to
keep up if growth rates and service quality are to be maintained and improved.
"This is the part causing the most grief," said S.P. Shukla, president of the
wireless division at Reliance Communications Ltd., referring to
carrier-connectivity problems. "When it comes to making a call go through on
another network you need a point of interconnection. If you are on one side of
the river and someone is on the other side, you need a bridge."
Cellular companies say they also have been held back by long waits to get
more broadcast spectrum so they can handle more calls. The battle over spectrum
space has been going on for more than a year.
Meanwhile, companies, regulators and politicians have been squabbling about
which service providers deserve more spectrum and how they should pay for it.
Some companies say spectrum should be auctioned off, while others say it should
be allocated equally and paid for through revenue-sharing with the government.
Still others want bandwidth to be allotted at a set price to only the largest
operators that need it most.
"The delay in the policy with regards to spectrum is a concern," because it
slows the growth in the number of calls and services companies can handle in
urban areas, says Ajay Srinivasan, a telecommunications analyst at Crisil
Research in Mumbai. "If phone companies don't get additional spectrum, then they
have to put up more towers, which is difficult in urban areas."
In addition to these concerns, uncertainty about how much foreign investment
will be allowed in India's telecommunications sector has slowed investment from
overseas and blurred growth outlooks. The government this year lifted the
foreign-shareholding cap for telecommunications companies to 74% from 49%. New
Delhi has yet to clarify the circumstances under which the foreigners are
allowed to invest.
"They are fixing the problems, but the magnitude of new customers is so
high," says Anil Prakash, secretary general of Telecom Users Group of India, a
nongovernment organization that represents consumers. "They need to set their
house in order quickly."