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FRANKFURT -- Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England
raised interest rates, strengthening a global trend and signaling that European
monetary authorities are more concerned about rising inflation than about the
prospect of Europe's recovery faltering.
While the ECB's decision to raise rates by a quarter point to 3% was
expected, the Bank of England's quarter-point move to 4.75% was a surprise.
European shares fell on the news, with the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index closing down
1.6%.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank, which sets monetary
policy for the countries that use the euro, will continue to monitor inflation
risks "very closely." Economists interpret the phrase as a sign the bank will
accelerate the pace of its rate increases, and they expect another quarter-point
push as soon as October. Most observers believe interest rates will hit 3.5% by
the end of the year, despite signs that recent growth in the euro zone may reach
a plateau by then.
"If our assumptions and baseline scenario are confirmed, a progressive
withdrawal of monetary accommodation will be warranted," said Mr. Trichet. He
noted the uncertainty caused by geopolitical tensions, plus strong credit growth
in the euro zone, present risks that prices will keep rising.
Prompted by strong growth and its expectation that inflation will remain
above the bank's 2% target, the Bank of England's move brings the U.K.'s
monetary policy in line with the global tendency toward higher rates. In the
past month alone, 15 central banks around the world have increased the cost of
borrowing. The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased rates to 6%, and policy
makers at the Bank of Japan have signaled rates there will continue rising,
though bets remain split on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will pause in its
rate-raising campaign when it meets Tuesday.
"We've now seen excess liquidity being withdrawn from all the key central
banks," said Matthew Sharratt, an economist with Bank of America.
Even as the ECB prepares to quicken the pace of tightening, economists
speculate that by next year, it could find itself in a classic central-bank
bind. "There's a real risk that the ECB finds itself with core inflation
increasing and growth underperforming," said Dominic Bryant of BNP Paribas.
Euro-zone inflation data continue to come in strong. July's headline
inflation figure remained 2.5%, far above the bank's preferred range of "below,
but close to" 2%. Mr. Trichet cited oil prices and their potential pass-through
as price risks, but core inflation -- with volatile food and energy prices
excluded -- also is creeping up. Consumer-price expectations last month in the
euro zone remained at the highest level in more than four years. Higher
raw-material prices are driving up manufacturing costs, which businesses have
begun passing to consumers.
Meanwhile, data strengthening the case for the euro zone's recovery are
trickling in. Unemployment fell to a record low 7.8% in June, and retail-sales
numbers show a 0.5% uptick in the second quarter.
The International Monetary Fund has raised its projection for 2006 euro-zone
growth slightly to 2.1%. Second-quarter figures for growth in gross domestic
product, due in mid-August, are expected to show further acceleration.
But survey results are spotty, which suggests the currency bloc could be
peaking. Euro-area business confidence rose further in July, but closely watched
business-activity indexes, including the euro-zone service-sector survey and
Germany's Ifo index, slipped.
"Everything's looking good in the euro zone at the moment, but there are some
quite worrying clouds on the horizon," said Howard Archer, economist with Global
Insight.