http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB115020812081778925-LABG_FC58vq4JKyJVNaeXDDc410_20060620.html?mod=regionallinks
TOKYO -- Sharp declines in stock prices may force the Bank of Japan to delay
the end of its five-year-old policy of 0% interest rates, giving the Japanese
economy more time to benefit from rock-bottom lending rates.
Higher Japanese interest rates could have a big effect on world financial
markets as many global investors have borrowed cheaply in Japan to invest in
higher-yielding assets elsewhere, a technique known as the "carry trade." In
Japan, higher rates would increase the price of borrowing for companies and make
mortgages more expensive for home buyers, both of which might damp economic
growth if they went too far.
Only a month ago, as Japan's economy grew healthily and domestic prices rose
steadily, some economists were predicting the central bank would abandon this
extraordinary policy as early as this month. But with the country's stock market
plunging to nearly seven-month lows, most economists have written off June for a
possible rate raise, and an increasing number think the central bank may stick
to zero rates until August or even September.
A delay looked even more likely yesterday after the Nikkei Stock Average of
225 companies tumbled 614.41 points, or 4%, to 14218.60. That was the largest
single-day point decline for the Nikkei average since Sept. 12, 2001, the day
after the terrorist attacks in the U.S. The benchmark has dropped 15% over the
past month.
The Bank of Japan is concerned that its 0% interest rate might lead to
overheating prices if it is left in place for too long. The bank also wants to
"normalize" its policy.
The measure was adopted as an emergency in 2001, when Japan was suffering
from deflation -- a sustained period of falling prices that hampered economic
activity and acted as a brake on growth. To encourage bank lending and spark
economic activity, the central bank reduced its policy rate -- the rate banks
charge one another for overnight loans -- to zero. But Japan's economy has been
growing steadily since 2002, and consumer prices began rising consistently at
the end of last year. These trends prepare the ground for an initial rise in
interest rates by a quarter percentage point.
The Tokyo stock market's recent weakness is primarily caused by uncertainty
about the U.S. economy, in particular whether the Federal Reserve will continue
its series of rate rises. The Japanese fear this might cause a slowdown in the
U.S. and damp demand for Japanese exports. These have enjoyed robust earnings in
recent years and have boosted the Japanese economy.
Unlike in the U.S., where the Fed might feel compelled to raise rates to hold
down inflation, Japan has less worry about prices taking off. The consumer-price
index rose just 0.4% in April, well within the range of 0% to 2% that the
central bank announced in March as its target for price stability.
At a two-day policy-board meeting that starts today, the central bank is
widely expected to leave the overnight call rate near zero and to provide little
indication of when it will raise rates.
In a comment widely interpreted to mean the Bank of Japan wasn't flustered by
the stock market, BOJ Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata said the recent share-price
falls were due to investors selling after taking on too much risk. "I believe
[the market] will find a new equilibrium and stability shortly," he said.
A majority of economists still think a rate rise is likely next month, but
that could change if financial markets deteriorate further. The BOJ "has said
stock prices are not a factor," said Masuhisa Kobayashi, chief
Japanese-government-bond strategist for Barclays Capital. "But with the markets
going down as sharply as they are, a rate hike will be difficult."
What is more, the central bank faces increasing pressure from politicians to
keep the zero-rate policy. Some are worried a rate rise might hurt the economy,
as a premature rise did in 2000.