http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB114894592514665786-kayLi_MoZfrBijm1415werWizxk_20060605,00.html?mod=regionallinks
William
F. Browder manages more foreign money in Moscow than anyone else, but he sees no
conflict in lobbying both for and against a Russia that has made him wealthy and
persona non grata.
While the recent nose dive in emerging markets was taking 25% off Russian
shares, Mr. Browder was in New York reassuring clients of his Hermitage Capital
Management that the country had fallen victim to panic selling unrelated to its
own oil-rich, high-growth fundamentals. Using a thick flip-chart of supporting
data, he argued Russia had an easy 10% to 15% short-term upside simply from
global calming.
That followed a stop in Washington where he was campaigning to get senators
and administration officials to pressure Russian leaders to restore his right to
enter their country, revoked without explanation late last year. The argument of
this British citizen who gave up his U.S. passport in 1998: Uncle Sam should
help protect the roughly $1 billion of the $4 billion he manages that is in
American hands. The U.K. has already given its support.
I've tracked Mr. Browder over the years as a canary in a Russian coal mine
whose survival and increased wealth despite the country's defects and risks were
somehow reassuring. Mr. Browder has been personally responsible for bringing
hundreds of millions of dollars of investment to Russia while fighting some
winning battles against corporate malfeasance.
His saga has additional biographical panache as this leading capitalist in
Russia is the grandson of former American Communist Party leader Earl Browder.
His story remains important now for its insight into a country that is going bad
even as it grows rich, though Mr. Browder has too much at stake to put it quite
that way.
"I make my money off Russia's transition from horrible to bad," explains Mr.
Browder, settling into a plush chair in New York's Four Seasons Hotel while
checking his PDA for the latest market movements. "Russia sucks. If it sucks
less over time, I gain. If it were really horrible now, I would have suffered
far worse than losing my visa."
Yet the truth is that Russia is growing more corrupt and less democratic with
each additional $1 per barrel of oil. The higher prices rise, the greater Mr.
Browder's returns -- they've gone up 35% since his exile. Yet the greed of his
enemies has grown as well, increasing the motivation of those whose corporate
wrongdoing he has unearthed to send him a warning message through their friends
in the visa office. Or at least that's the closest he can come to a theory for
his exile.
Mr. Browder argues that President Vladimir Putin, who rode into power on an
anticorruption mantra, has instead shifted the business from 22 oligarchs to the
hands of 10,000 bureaucrats. "The economic cost of corruption has declined
dramatically," he says. "But the number of people implementing corruption has
expanded."
Mr. Browder figures Mr. Putin needs two types of individuals: retrograde
security thugs to help him survive and reform economists to ensure the system
continues to work. It has been the shifting of power to the thugs from the
reformists that ought to raise concerns among his shareholders.
He views last week's surprising steel-merger proposal under which Alexei
Mordashov, owner of Russian steel company Severstal, is to acquire roughly a
third of Luxembourg's Arcelor as a smart businessman's hedge against his
country's increasingly uncertain future. Mr. Mordashov, Mr. Browder says, has
made "a major wealth-protection move two years before the uncertainties of the
Russian presidential transition. No matter how good his steel company is, it is
unwise to have $10 billion, or 100% of his net worth, in Russia."
Mr. Browder's detractors have little sympathy for his campaign to regain his
visa, arguing that he has always been driven primarily by financial
self-interest, something he doesn't deny. His fight to re-enter Russia lacks the
same moral quality that prompted an earlier era of Western campaigns for the
likes of Soviet dissidents Andrei Sakharov and Natan Sharansky to leave the
country. Moreover, his critics condemn him as the leading cheerleader in the
West for Mr. Putin despite Russia's antidemocratic turn and the
Kremlin-orchestrated 2003 arrest and jailing of former Yukos owner Mikhail
Khodorkovsky. Mr. Browder's best guess of why Mr. Putin hasn't returned loyalty
by intervening on his behalf is that he has a more powerful competing interest.
In the past weeks, Mr. Browder has learned some uncomfortable truths about
today's Russia. He has come to agree that the country does have a powerful
"Siliviki," a clan of former KGB officers who have considerable influence over
the country's course. He also has concluded that more important for Russian
leaders than whether you dissent or agree with them politically is whether you
challenge their economic interests.
He won't go so far as to say he was wrong about Mr. Khodorkovsky, who he
still insists committed crimes for which Russia was justified to convict him.
Yet he concedes he now has "more sympathy" for Mr. Khodorkovsky because he was
singled out for infractions others also committed by others.
I don't write the following lines with the same conviction that I wore my
"Free Sharansky" T-shirt years ago. Yet it is in Russia's interests to throw
open its doors to a man who has brought the country so much investment and
improved corporate governance -- just as it should restore the visas of a
half-dozen other leading financial market players in a similar predicament. Or
like any country guided by due process, it should justify his travel ban so he
can properly appeal.
Mr. Browder's campaign is self-serving, but the Bush administration shouldn't
let that stand in the way of its own support. After all, nothing ensures the
workings of the free market more than the protection of enlightened
self-interest.
Should Bush administration officials intervene on Bill Browder's behalf?
Is Mr. Browder right that Russian stocks remain a buy?