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GENEVA -- Shortly before Arthur Dunkel, the world's top trade official for
more than a decade, died last June, soon-to-be World Trade Organization chief
Pascal Lamy went to visit him. Mr. Lamy wanted to ask about the nuclear option
of world-trade diplomacy, known as a "Dunkel draft."
As in Mr. Dunkel's day, Mr. Lamy is trying to drive through a global deal to
cut trade tariffs and is making little headway. Trade ministers could even
decide this week that it isn't worth trying to meet an end-of-April deadline to
produce an outline agreement in the so-called Doha round of trade talks, and
call off a meeting scheduled for later in the month.
A deal would be worth up to $100 billion to the global economy, according to
a World Bank estimate. But it would require the U.S., European Union, Brazil,
India and others to accept fresh cuts in protections for their most sensitive
industries. With few signs of that happening, pressure is building on Mr. Lamy
to break the impasse.
In 1991, Mr. Dunkel effectively broke the logjam in previous trade talks,
known as the Uruguay Round, by deciding to bypass diplomats, break protocol and
draft the text of an agreement on his own. He was attacked for the move, but a
deal ultimately was struck. Mr. Dunkel's draft is now seen as a turning point in
those negotiations.
Interviewed in his office overlooking Lake Geneva last week, Mr. Lamy says it
is still too early for a move that should be kept for "a last-gasp" effort. But
he is clearly mulling the option. "[Dunkel's] advice was that you do that once
in your life and preferably after 12 years in your position rather than after
six months," said Mr. Lamy. "It's something that's very dangerous. It's an
extreme step."
By producing a draft, Mr. Lamy could force nations to reject an entire trade
deal if they feel he is asking too much from them. That could undermine his
credibility with WTO members and make it all but impossible to resume his normal
role as trusted deal broker.
Still, Mr. Lamy may not have all that much time left. While the trade
ministers' April deadline was self-imposed, many diplomats believe they need to
strike the outlines of a deal by the end of July. That would leave just enough
time to crunch the final numbers and allow the White House to usher the pact
through Congress before President Bush's fast-track trade powers expire in July
2007. After that, Congress would be able to pick any deal apart.
"He's going to have to use some of his political capital to help us help
ourselves," said Bruce Gosper, Australia's ambassador to the WTO. "You don't
want to mistime it. If it's done at the wrong time, it will be wasted, and we
will miss our opportunity."
Mr. Lamy, a French Socialist who took the job eight months ago, has a lot
riding on the outcome. Since 1995, when the WTO replaced the General Agreement
on Tariffs and Trade -- the group that Mr. Dunkel once headed -- it has made
scant progress in cutting global tariffs. A collapse of the Doha round would
likely trigger a rush to strike bilateral trade deals, scaling back the role of
the WTO as a place to negotiate trade.
Since moving to Geneva from Brussels, where he was the EU's top trade
negotiator, Mr. Lamy has taken to wearing a bright red ski parka over his suits
and an Indiana Jones-style hat. He has reinvented the top job at the WTO with an
energetic style that has impressed many, but irritated at least one trade
minister.
Mr. Lamy and Peter Mandelson, who succeeded the Frenchman as the EU's trade
commissioner, have mixed it up in recent negotiating sessions. At a Hong Kong
meeting, Mr. Mandelson snapped at Mr. Lamy when it appeared to him that the WTO
chief was speaking on behalf of the EU. "You had your time, you are not the
commissioner anymore," said Mr. Mandelson, according to people who were there.
Asked about the exchange, Mr. Lamy said, "I don't remember." Mr. Mandelson's
office declined to comment.
Mr. Lamy is the first WTO director-general to have a computer on his desk
and, to the surprise of some members of the WTO staff, began answering his own
email shortly after taking office. "He thinks about strategy, he's very
organized and has a structured mentality," said the U.S. ambassador to the WTO,
Peter Allgeier.
It was largely Mr. Lamy's decision last fall to lower ambitions for a meeting
of the world's trade ministers in Hong Kong, a strategic retreat that many
diplomats credit for preventing the gathering from failing to accomplish
anything at all. He kept diplomats focused on two clear goals of setting a date
to end export subsidies on farm products and providing the world's
least-developed countries more access to rich nations' markets.
Mr. Lamy, a marathon runner, estimates he slept a total of seven hours during
the five-day meeting, sustaining himself on brown bread and bananas. "He simply
ran everyone into the ground; it was a physical contest that he won," said one
trade diplomat.
In Hong Kong late last year, antiglobalization protesters surrounded Mr.
Lamy's car as he left a speech, pounding on the hood and demanding that he read
a petition against global trade. To their surprise, the Frenchman got out of the
car to look at the petition and asked the protesters if they had any questions.
For all his energy, though, it is far from clear whether Mr. Lamy can make a
success of Doha. The top job at the WTO carries few formal powers, relying on
persuasion and cajoling to broker a deal. "Cooking with 150 cooks, who are
making 25 dishes, which they have been re-cooking for 50 years, is complex,"
said Mr. Lamy.