LOS ANGELES - Forget zombies. The data crunchers are invading Hollywood.

The same kind of numbers analysis that has reshaped areas like politics and online marketing is increasingly being used by the entertainment industry.

Now, the slicing and dicing is seeping into one of the last corners of Hollywood where creativity and old-fashioned instinct still hold sway: the screenplay.

A chain-smoking former statistics professor named Vinny Bruzzese - "the reigning mad scientist of Hollywood," in the words of one studio customer - is aggressively pitching a service he calls script evaluation.

For as much as $20,000 per script, Mr. Bruzzese and a team of analysts compare the story structure and genre of a draft script with those of released movies, looking for clues to box-office success. His company, Worldwide Motion Picture Group, also digs into an extensive database of focus group results for similar films and surveys 1,500 potential moviegoers. What do you like? What should be changed?

"Demons in horror movies can target people or be summoned," Mr. Bruzzese said. "If it's a targeting demon, you are likely to have much higher opening-weekend sales than if it's summoned. So get rid of that Ouija Board scene."

Bowling scenes tend to pop up in films that do poorly, Mr. Bruzzese, 39, continued. Therefore it is statistically unwise to include one in your script.

His recommendations, delivered in a 20- to 30-page report, might range from minor tightening to substantial rewrites. Script "doctors," as Hollywood refers to writing consultants, have long worked quietly on movie assembly lines. But many top screenwriters reject Mr. Bruzzese's statistical intrusion into their craft.

"This is my worst nightmare," said Ol Parker, a writer whose film credits include "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel." "It's the enemy of creativity, nothing more than an attempt to mimic that which has worked before."

But a lot of producers, studio executives and major film financiers disagree. Already they have hired Mr. Bruzzese's company to analyze about 100 scripts, including an early treatment for "Oz the Great and Powerful," which took in $484.8 million worldwide.

Mr. Bruzzese, who is one of a very few if not the only entrepreneur to use this form of script analysis, is plotting to take it to Broadway and television.

"It takes a lot of the risk out of what I do," said Scott Steindorff, a producer who used Mr. Bruzzese to evaluate the script for "The Lincoln Lawyer," a hit 2011 crime drama.

Audience research has been known to save a movie, but it has also missed the mark. Opinion surveys - "idiot cards," as some unimpressed directors call them - indicated that "Fight Club" would be a flop. It took in more than $100 million worldwide.

But, as the stakes of making movies become ever higher, Hollywood leans ever harder on research to minimize guesswork. "I understand that writing is an art, and I deeply respect that," Mr. Bruzzese said. "But the earlier you get in with testing and research, the more successful movies you will make."

One Oscar-winning writer who, at the insistence of a producer, had a script analyzed by Mr. Bruzzese said his initial worries proved unfounded.

"It was a complete shock, the best notes on a draft that I have ever received," said a writer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing his reputation.

Major film financiers and advisers like Houlihan Lokey confirmed that they had used the service, but declined to speak on the record about it. The six major Hollywood movie studios declined to comment.

"All screenwriters think their babies are beautiful," Mr. Bruzzese said. "I'm here to tell it like it is: Some babies are ugly."

The New York Times

(China Daily 05/26/2013 page10)