From Chinese Press

Yemen sliding toward civil war

By Huang Peizhao (peopledaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2011-06-10 16:06

The national situation of Yemen is still tense and complex after its president Ali Abdullah Saleh was injured in an attack and sent to Saudi Arabia for treatment. The crossfire between different parties is still ongoing, and there is still bloodshed from time to time. Demonstrations are ongoing and actions by the Al-Qaeda terrorist network are becoming more rampant. This indicates that a civil war may break out in Yemen if nothing is done.

Related readings:  Report: US steps up covert strikes in Yemen  US officials: Yemen leader heavily burned in blast  Clashes kill 19 in Yemen  US pushes for immediate transition in Yemen

Whether Saleh will be able to return to Yemen is another matter of public interest. Although Saleh is away from Yemen, he is still the president of the country. Yemen's senior government officials including the vice president have declared that Saleh will return to Yemen in the near future. Furthermore, Saleh's family, relatives and trusted military commanders are still in Yemen. They all hope that he will return to power so the current structure can be maintained.

However, there is still the question of whether or not Saleh will be able to return. The United States has expressed that this current situation is the best opportunity for Yemen to realize a transfer of authority. In addition, Saudi Arabia as an ally of the United States in the region and in cooperation with U.S. strategy and the Yemen Intermediation Plan will most likely advise Saleh to give up power and indefinitely stay in Saudi Arabia in peace.

In fact, the attention on whether Saleh will return to Yemen is just the appearance of the issue, while the essence of the issue is that whatever the result will be, the door leading to greater turmoil in Yemen is being quietly opened.

First, Yemeni society itself is filled with numerous contradictions and long-term issues. There are the Houthi rebels in northern Yemen near the border with Saudi Arabia who represent the interests of the Shia minority that have often stirred up rebellions over recent years. The southern provinces which once belonged to the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) that have long been full of the atmosphere of separation.

Yemen is a country composed of tribal groups, the basic social units. Many tribes in Yemen are underdeveloped and have a large amount of illiterate people. The interests of tribal groups in Yemen are more important than that of the entire country and the continued turmoil in Yemen has caused different tribes to seek their own interests. The gun abuse in Yemen has enabled each tribe to own arms and ammunition. Therefore, to seek their own interests, tribal groups tend to use force to fight against each other.

What is even worse is that the disordered situation is so messy that no one can tell who the rivals are among the unrest. It cannot be said that its a contention between democracy and autocracy, the competition between a ruling party and an opposing party or a blood feud between the Saleh family and the Hashid tribe. It could be said that the picture depicting Yemen's political and social relations is simply vague. Saleh, who has ruled Yemen for more than 30 years, once said that ruling Yemen is just like "dancing on the heads of snakes." The lack of clear political and social relations in Yemen has made this country more disordered and trapped in endless unrest.

Yemen is on the U.N. list of least developed countries and has long been plagued by a sluggish economy, widespread poverty, uneven wealth distribution and severe social polarization. Al Qaeda took advantage of these factors and turned Yemen into its headquarters in the Arabian Peninsula. The terrorist organization even announced recently to establish an "Islamic Emirate" in southern Yemen. Previously, the internal conflict in the country was mainly between the Sana-based central government and tribal forces in restive provinces. However, as Al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen is getting increasingly involved in the battle against the central government, the situation in the country has become more complex and chaotic and is continuously deteriorating.

Yemen in Arabic means "land of prosperity and happiness," and in the past, Arabs always associated the country with "happiness." Regretfully, the "land of prosperity and happiness" is descending into civil war, and is at risk of becoming a battlefield. The people inside and outside Yemen share a common aspiration to stop violence, promote peace and turn the country into a real land of happiness.