Op-Ed Contributors

Census problems for China and India

By Amitendu Palit (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-09-07 07:58

China and India have begun counting their people. China has started its sixth national census, while India is into its 15th. For both countries, the exercise involves enormous use of manpower, financial resources and administrative planning. Several niggling problems in compiling demographic data pose challenges for the two countries.

A census is very important for China and India both for assessing demographic developments. As the world's most populous nations, it is essential that the two capture demographic nuances. Their vast land area and diversity compel the two countries to develop their census mechanisms in manners that can capture all aspects of demographic changes. A key problem in this regard arises for migrant populations, which the two countries are trying to accommodate within their computation domains.

In China, cities like Shanghai and Beijing have quite a number of expatriate workers. So, future local government policies for city populations need to factor in expatriate workers. This is vital because local policies may have different objectives for foreign and domestic residents. Counting foreign workers effectively requires preparing a different set of questionnaire, because their backgrounds and antecedents are different from domestic workers. The census methodology needs to incorporate these additional factors, and people collecting data have to be taught and trained accordingly.

Collecting information on foreign workers is a larger exercise for China than India. Beijing and Shanghai probably have larger expatriate worker populations than Delhi and Mumbai because China has greater concentration of trans-national businesses than India.

There are, however, two other aspects of "foreign" residents that China and India both will want to identify. Officials will be keen on identifying compatriots from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macao working on the Chinese mainland. Some of these migrants may not be working, but could be purely residents.

India will want to identify migrants from Bangladesh and Nepal, who have become incremental parts of populations in cities such as New Delhi and Kolkata. They comprise part of the informal work force, too, and often do not have residency permits. Distinguishing these residents, and other migrants, from permanent residents of cities will be a major challenge for India's census.

Internal migration probably poses a greater challenge to the two countries. For China, it is critical to distinguish between urban and rural residents. Relaxations in the house registration (hukou) system have allowed considerable inter-regional migration within China. While it has ensured robust supply of labor for China's export-oriented industries, there have been implications for social insurance.

Local governments need to decide whether social security benefits will be similar for both set of residents. Decisions are difficult without assessing the number and quality of temporary residents.