Op-Ed Contributors

Cheonan case: UN vague as usual

By Zhang Liangui (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-07-14 07:55

Conspiracy theorists made many American political leaders believe the DPRK poses new risks and must be stopped before more Cheonan-like incidents take place. This prompted the US to side with the ROK from the beginning. In China, the US-ROK military exercise was interpreted as a threat. As a result, the US and China were found negotiating an affair that was not theirs.

Last but not the least, the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, which is the key to peace and stability in the region, was ignored. In fact, heightened tensions on the peninsula, and the whole of East Asia, should be attributed to the failure of the denuclearization process.

The key to a long-term solution to the problem is a nuclear weapons-free Korean Peninsula. But while discussing the matter, the Security Council ignored the nuclear question. Merely calling for peace and stability is not enough to solve the problems on the peninsula.

The Security Council chairman's statement has put a not-so-perfect end to the Cheonan affair. All the parties involved will adopt measures that suit their interests.

The US-ROK military exercise will continue and end without making too much noise, while the ROK may postpone its psychological warfare against the DPRK. China will maintain good relations with its neighbors, and the DPRK would seek more talks to protect its interests. And the Cheonan affair may fade from our memory with the passage of time. But despite all this, its impact would be felt strongly later on three fronts.

First, East Asia will see the deepening of group politics. The Cheonan affair has already dealt a blow to Sino-ROK relations and could stimulate mutual aversion among civilians. The ROK and Japan both would rely more on the US and thus boost the triangular alliance. As a measure of defense, the DPRK would play the China or Russia card, and the idea of two opposing triangles may gain ground. All these would hinder the efforts to forge an East Asian community.

Second, arms race may reemerge in the region. The ROK has already raised its military budget, while Japan is ready to rearm itself. Russia is reinforcing its military, too. And the US is likely to strengthen its military presence in the region, while the DPRK could accelerate its nuclear and missile programs.

Third, efforts to keep the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons will meet more difficulties. Though the DPRK considers the Security Council chairman's statement a victory and has expressed willingness to support denuclearization through the Six-Party Talks, the hopes of denuclearization have dimmed, because the parties now share a more complex relationship, marked by conflicts of interests.

Hence, it would be more difficult to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

The author is a professor of international strategy research center at the Central Party School of the CPC.

(China Daily 07/14/2010 page9)