Responding to remarks made by Canada-based Kanwa Defence Review analyst
Andrei Pinkov that Chinese military strength, now witnessing rapid expansion,
will overtake that of the United States in 20 years, this author said: "I, as a
soldier, now would like to thank you for your good wishes for the development of
Chinese military forces. But your remarks, if meant to be a serious prediction
of the balance of Chinese and US military might, are a miscalculation because
China will not be able to catch up with the United States in 100 years, let
alone 20 years. Moreover, this race will never happen. US military forces will
not remain at a standstill and China will never embark on the road of becoming a
military superpower."
The recently convened Seventh Forum on Sun Tze's Art of War, in Hangzhou,
Zhejiang Province, provided the occasion for these exchanges.
Taking the road of peaceful development is China's basic policy, which is
being implemented in all seriousness.
In military terms, this basic policy finds expression in the active-defence
strategy adopted by the Chinese military. But, in more specific terms, what kind
of military forces should be developed and how should the country's military
might be used? This seems to go beyond the scope of purely Chinese affairs,
taking into account that the behaviour of other major powers on the world's
political and military stage should never be overlooked.
China is a big country, and a responsible one. Therefore, it needs a military
strength matching its status as a big country. This is dictated by the need to
safeguard China's own security and protect the country's national interests.
But, in the context of the profound transformations taking place in the
world's military arena, China lags far behind developed nations militarily.
Despite the fact that China's rapid economic growth offers the nation's
military enough financial support, China's military strength is far outstripped
by the need to protect its ever expanding national interests.
The country's deterrent and real-combat capability to respond to traditional
threats to its security, for example, is deficient. The same can be said about
China's capability in terms of dealing with terrorist attacks, carrying out
international rescue and humanitarian aid operations and implementing UN
peacekeeping missions. Its long-distance delivery and response capability, which
is required in case of evacuating Chinese nationals when any emergency arises
overseas, is also weak. All these capabilities pale into insignificance beside
those possessed by the United States and other developed nations.
True, China has the largest conventional army in the world. But its level of
modernization is fairly low, trailing 15 to 25 years behind developed countries.
And when China starts taking steps to modernize its military forces, alarm
bells start ringing overseas.
The "China military threat" theory is the loudest, above all the hubbub of
different versions of the "China threat."
China is, therefore, caught in a very subtle and complex situation.
"Peaceful development" is the country's solemn strategic option, which helps
redress the bigotry and extremist feelings harboured by a few Chinese people as
well as counter the "China threat" theory.
Starting from the Opium War in 1840, China was repeatedly bullied by Western
powers. The negative influence lingers on today. Some Chinese, for instance,
still consider themselves to be "victims," while others wish to exact revenge.
Given free rein, these mentalities would poison the environment vitally needed
for our development and fuel the "China threat" theory.
China's military forces, in the opinion of this author, should be of the
active-defence type. Our military forces should be committed to staging
counter-attacks in case the country's vital interests are encroached upon,
instead of carrying out wars of aggression against other countries and bullying
neighbours. This also constitutes a deterrent to potential military blackmail
and aggression.
The country's 2004 Defence White Paper states that the People's Liberation
Army (PLA) should develop military co-operation that is not targeted at a third
party and that the PLA is non-aligned and non-confrontational by nature. The PLA
participates in United Nations peacekeeping missions and anti-terror
co-operation, carries out various forms of military exchanges and is committed
to setting up military-security dialogue mechanisms. The PLA also participates
in bilateral or multilateral joint military exercises in non-traditional
security areas.
The document states that the PLA is trying to learn from useful experiences
of its foreign counterparts and selectively imports advanced military hardware
and managerial methods.
All this shows that China is combining "hard power" and "soft power" to help
bring about a harmonious world.
In the late 1970s, Deng Xiaoping, the chief architect of China's reform and
opening up, emphasized that the economy, instead of class struggle, should be
the focus of government work and that all sectors should concentrate on this.
He asked that the military exercise self-restraint, meaning that it should
not claim a larger share of State finances.
As a result, a great deal of investment went into the economic, cultural,
education and research sectors, while the military got just enough to maintain
its routine functions.
This wise decision largely helped bring about China's rapid economic growth
over the past three decades.
Of course, long-standing insufficient investment in the defence sector has
slowed the pace of military modernization. This is particularly reflected in the
fact that core military technology with independent Chinese patents falls far
behind that of developed countries and that the Chinese army's hardware is
inferior to that of its Western counterparts. To make matters worse, importing
sophisticated weaponry from overseas is riddled with difficulties.
As China's economy has gained in strength, the State has increased its
defence spending. But this increased investment chiefly goes to improving the
structure of the defence sector and to "paying off historical debts," which
refers to the long-time insufficient investment in the sector.
Despite enjoying military supremacy over all other countries on the planet,
the United States is constantly on the watch against any other nation that could
pose a military challenge. Now Uncle Sam is concentrating on China.
The Pentagon says in its Quadrennial Defence Review issued on February 3 this
year that China has the biggest potential, among the rising big countries, to
rival the United States militarily. The United States' traditional military
advantages would disappear within a certain period of time if no action is
taken. The document suggests that the United States continue to invest heavily
in key strategic and tactical fields, enhancing the capabilities of constant
monitoring, long-range strikes, combat mobility and the air, naval and land
forces fighting at a strategic range.
No single country is a match for the United States in terms of investing
enormous sums of money in the development of sophisticated military
technologies. China, having its hands full with many other challenges and now
already on the path of peaceful development, will never take part in an arms
race with any other countries, particularly the United States.
The author is a rear admiral of the Chinese navy,
and director of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the National Defence
University of China.
(China Daily 07/05/2006 page4)