Of course population management is a concern for any country, as too many or
too few people can throw a wrench in economic and social development. Concerning
China's huge population Premier Wen Jiabao once said: "Any small problem
multiplied by 1.3 billion will end up being a very big problem, and a very big
aggregate divided by 1.3 billion will come to a very tiny figure."
Premier Wen is right. There is no way of getting around the country's large
population. It is very difficult, almost impossible, for most people, including
Chinese people themselves, to really visualize 1.3 billion people. But here is
one way of looking at it: If every Chinese citizen gave you one jiao (roughly
equivalent to 1 US cent), you would have over US$13 million in your account.
So understandably, many in China, from the average person to the media to
high-level politicians lament China's heavy population burden as being an
obstacle to economic and social development. But really, how accurate is this
assessment?
Surprisingly, China is not the most crowded country in the world. Not even
close. If you look at population density, China has far to go before it can
claim that mantle. When judging whether a country has a potential population
problem, density is a better measure than overall population. While China has
the most people in the world it also has the second or third largest area of
land, whereas India has the second largest overall population but only the 7th
largest land area. Also, can it truly be argued that the United States, with an
estimated population of nearly 260 million people, has a larger population
problem than, for example, Indonesia, with roughly 242 million people?
According to one source's estimation, in 2005, among countries with an area
of over 5,000 sq km, Bangladesh, with 1,002 people per kilometer, ranks as the
most crowded. China, with a modest 136 people per km, ranks 31st, behind such
countries as South Korea (4th; 492), Vietnam (17th; 253), the United Kingdom
(19th; 247), and Germany (20th; 231). As you can see, this list includes both
developed and developing countries. That is the point: A large population in
itself does not automatically lead to problems. Instead, other factors play a
larger role in a country's fortunes.
(Now, as with any statistics, population density is just an average. For
example, a place like Beijing has a much higher density, while many places in
West China has almost nobody. But this phenomenon is true in almost all
countries.)
For example, China's nearly 30 years of great economic growth likely is due
more to it's reform and opening-up policy, which began in the late 1970s, and
less to its one-child policy, which began in the early 1980s, after China's
initial economic growth had already taken off. So it stands more to reason that
China's struggles with poverty in the 1950s and '60s were due more to it being
closed to the world than to it having a booming population.
Actually it would do China good to pay a little less attention to the overall
population. For one thing, it would allow China to learn and benefit more from a
wider array of countries.
During the 2003 SARS epidemic, of all the countries directly affected,
Vietnam got SARS under control the fastest. In the early stages, one of the
fears (which never materialized thankfully) in China was the spread of the virus
via the floating population of migrant workers. Now, like China, Vietnam also
has a substantial floating population. So during one Dialogue (a program on the
China Central Television 9 English Channel, or CCTV9) interview, an expert, when
asked about whether China could learn form Vietnam in managing SARS among the
floating population, said no because China had a larger floating population than
Vietnam.
Unfortunately now I can't remember the exact figures, but at that time I
calculated and found that while obviously China had a larger overall floating
population, Vietnam had a higher floating population density. In other words,
Vietnam had a higher challenge in managing SARS among its population. It is easy
to see really.
For example, there are two countries: A and B. Country A has 100 police
officers and 20 criminals. Country B has 20 officers and 5 criminals. While
country A has more criminals, it can assign an average of 5 officers per
criminal (100 divided by 20) whereas country B, while it has only 5 criminals,
can assign only 4 officers per criminal (20 divided by 5). It is easy to see
which country has the bigger challenge. So contrary to that expert on CCTV9,
China could have learned from Vietnam's experience, hence reaping even greater
results.
Also, paying less attention to overall population could help improve
etiquette. I believe, and some of my Chinese friends have concurred, that some
of the bad behavior that some people display in China is due to the mentality of
"In China, with such a huge population, resources are limited. So I have to get
mine before it's too late." This mentality explains why some people do rude
things such as dish in line, board buses before others have gotten off, cross
the street when the light is red, and so on.
But this mentality is very flawed. While it may was necessary in China in the
1950s and 1960s for people to literally push for their share in society, now,
after 20-plus years of great economic growth, the situation is completely
different. Actually though, even if all of China was as crowded as its Macao
Special Administrative Region (17,865 people per square kilometer), in many
cases, it would be better to be more courteous, not less. That would lead to
better population management. Actually, China could use its heavily crowded
Macao and Hong Kong regions as an example, as I believe that the people in those
areas obey traffic rules, are very courteous, and so on.
So as a matter of speaking, maybe people in China should look elsewhere
instead of rushing to use "1.3 billion" as an excuse for various economic
problems and bad social etiquettes. If a large population automatically led to
problems, then South Korea would not be developed and Singapore, with a
population density of 6,389 per sq km, would not be renowned for its good
manners. In the end, the mentality and actions of people, not the amount of
people, determines a country's appearance.
Write to
Raymond McFarland at: mcstephen23@hotmail.com