美国IBM全球商业服务部门一位产品专家表示，女性鞋跟高低的流行趋势可以反应经济的走势，鞋跟越高就表示经济不景气。研究分析指出，在经济不景气的时期，高跟鞋的高度通常会增加或居高不下，女性消费者透过这些看来华丽的时尚鞋款来逃避现实、创造出繁华的幻影。该机构发布的报告举例称，20世纪20年代经济大萧条期间，高跟鞋和松糕鞋取代低跟公主鞋在年轻女性中大为流行；而在之后20世纪70年代的石油危机中，松糕鞋的风潮又卷土重来，让之前大为盛行的低跟凉鞋黯然失色。IBM利用特殊软件对社交媒体中有关鞋品流行趋势的文章进行分析后得出上述结论，并预测当前流行的超高跟鞋即将“回归地面”，这可能意味着经济前景的好转，或消费者已经做好了长期节衣缩食的准备。

Usually, in an economic downturn, heels go up and stay up — as consumers turn to a more flamboyant fashions as a means of fantasy and escape.

What do shoes say about the economy? Perhaps a lot.

In the 1920s, low-heeled flapper shoes gave way to high-heel pumps and platforms during the Great Depression.

In the 1970s oil crisis, platforms came back en vogue as the low-heeled sandals of the late 1960s were cast aside.

In the 1990s, the low, thick heels of the "grunge" period were replaced by "Sex and the City"-inspired stilettos just as the dot-com bubble burst.

"Usually, in an economic downturn, heels go up and stay up — as consumers turn to a more flamboyant fashions as a means of fantasy and escape," says Trevor Davis, a consumer product expert with 'International Business Machines' Global Business Services unit, in a press release.

IBM conducted a study of social media posts and is predicting that women's heel heights, which are currently in nosebleed territory, are poised to come back down to Earth.

Perhaps the shift signals a change in the economic outlook, or maybe it's a sign of resignation.

"This time, something different is happening — perhaps a mood of long-term austerity is evolving among consumers sparking a desire to reduce ostentation in everyday settings," Davis says.

IBM came to its conclusion by using special software to sort through social media posts about footwear trends. Several separate sorts were made, first broadly, and then narrowing down to bloggers who are passionate about footwear and have large followings. The result is one you won't find in the shoe store. Right now, stores are still carrying sky-high heels, but the shift to flatter shoes is on the way.

In fact, discussions about increasing heel height peaked toward the end of 2009, and then declined after that. Between 2008 and 2009, the most influential bloggers wrote consistently about heels that ranged in height from five to eight inches, but by 2011 they were writing about the return of the kitten heel and the perfect flat from designers Jimmy Choo and Christian Louboutin.

This is not to say that the sky-high heels are gone. Instead, Davis says, these soaring heels are discussed as glamwear and not for the office or a shopping trip.

According to IBM, this study also underscores that manufacturers and retailers cannot think that they are the ones in control of where the trends head. Bloggers have become influential tastemakers in their own right.

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(Agencies)

Vocabulary:

platforms: 松糕鞋

kitten heel: 中跟鞋

（中国日报网英语点津 Helen ）