Economy a factor in carbon targets: expert

China has set a preliminary range for its carbon dioxide-emissions peak level, but further studies are needed as its economy shifts to a "new normal" and as the nation plans a mechanism for capping its carbon emissions, said a leading expert at an official think tank.

International communities believe the goal set by China to peak its carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 in a joint announcement with the United States last month is a big step in moving global climate talks forward, but many wonder at what level the peaking is going to happen.

"The level of peaking is essential," said Xu Huaqing, deputy director general of China's National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation. "The goals cannot turn into a real forcing mechanism for boosting China's low-carbon transition without a level."

Xu declined to specify the range, but said studies have been done for two years, but more are needed as China's economy shifts to a new normal. That means the country will focus more on restructuring than maintaining its fast pace of growth.

"If China could optimize its energy structure and promote a low-carbon economy, peak of carbon emissions could occur earlier or at a lower level, albeit it's a daunting task," said Xu.

Uncertainties such as the pace of economic growth and transition will affect a goal that covers 16 years. It's crucial to make the targets clear to local governments and industries, Xu said.

China's industrial sector is expected to reach peaking of emissions before 2025, said Xu, as China aims to complete its industrialization by 2020.

"Transportation will be a very thorny sector," Xu said. "Although we promote a low-carbon way of living, it's still difficult to restrain the use of cars in China."

For major carbon emitters such as power plants, the government will allocate emissions quotas to them based on existing calculations, with a view toward establishing a nationwide carbon market, Xu said.

Meanwhile, the country plans to introduce a mechanism for capping its carbon dioxide emissions for the 13th Five-Year period (2016-2020).

Xu said it hasn't been determined "whether it will be a legally binding or predicative goal for capping carbon emissions at the national level".

The rich eastern coastal provinces and seven pilot regions that have started carbon permit trading should take the initiative and peak carbon emissions around 2020, said Xu,

The NDRC already has required 29 provinces and cities to set emissions targets when it added them to a list of China's low-carbon cities in late 2012.

However, for the middle and western areas, no consensus has been reached on whether a cap should be set, as economic development in the regions is lagging. Xu said detailed requirements for large-scale emissions reductions should be identified.

"We heard lots of complaints from local officials (that) capping emissions means restraining space for economic growth," he said. "Green transition is really difficult for them."

Also, there is still wide disagreement on whether there should be a cap at the national level for the 2016-20 period as China has set a pre-2020 target of cutting carbon dioxide per unit of GDP, said sources close to the issue.

Setting a cap would be important in boosting development of China's carbon dioxide market. Su Wei, director general of the climate change department under the National Development and Reform Commission, said last month that China will open a carbon market in 2016, that is expected to mature by 2020.

lanlan@chinadaily.com.cn