Discussing recent elections in HK and Taiwan, Kung Chi-ping concludes that future of both regions lies in getting aboard the 'mainland express' to achieve prosperity and stability

In human history, incidents that appear to be a coincidence actually follow the same historical logic and reflect similarly popular preferences.

Last Saturday the much-anticipated "nine-in-one" local elections took place in Taiwan after six months of intense campaigning by all candidates. In the southern port city of Kaohsiung, the Democratic Progressive Party's base camp for over 20 years, Kuomintang candidate Han Kuo-yu defeated his DPP rival Chen Chi-mai by a margin of 130,000 votes to win the mayor's office, closing a "textbook" chapter in Taiwan's electoral history.

During election campaign Han told voters, "Kaohsiung is so old and poor" that it "must not ignore the mainland market" any longer. The voting public in the port city, kept in a political "trance" by the DPP for two decades, finally woke up to the reality. Following the DPP's devastating loss in the elections, Tsai Ing-wen resigned as DPP chairperson.

In Hong Kong, the Legislative Council by-election for the Kowloon West geographical constituency was held on Sunday. "New comer" Chan Hoi-yan won the fiercely contested race with 106,457 votes, or 49.51 percent of the total, by championing "economic development over politics". Her archrival was Lee Cheuk-yan, a very experienced trade unionist representing the opposition camp and former lawmaker for many years. It was a landslide defeat to say the least.

These recent elections are testament to the same popular desire in both Hong Kong and Taiwan for political parties and politicians to focus on economic development and improving people's livelihoods instead of political confrontation and separatism. As far as popular desires in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are concerned, nothing is stronger than the desire for economic integration with the mainland. It is the undeniable and unstoppable trend of the day. For Hong Kong and Taiwan, the correct decision is to integrate their own economic development into the overall development strategy of the mainland.

We cannot discuss economic integration without examining the global situation first. President Xi Jinping noted in his keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the 2018 China International Import Expo in Shanghai earlier this month, "Economic globalization is an irreversible historic trend powering the world economy. Mankind can recognize, follow and make use of historic laws but cannot stop them from taking effect. The dominant historic trend will always prevail."

Apparently economic globalization has hit some snags at the moment. The United States, the largest economy in the world, has left one international organization after another in the past year or so and initiated trade disputes with other economies such as China, the European Union, Japan and Canada - posing serious challenges to globalization. However, those are not the general trend, but disruptions in the process of globalization. The reason is simple: Economic globalization allows individual economies to do what they are good at in a scientific and reasonable manner instead of striving to be "Jack of all trades" vying for the same resources and markets everywhere. It can also help maximize economic results of individual economies through reasonable distribution of labor and production as well as scientific use of raw materials and energy. Given the worldwide networks of communication and transportation it is entirely possible for economic globalization to realize its full potential if all individual economies commit to it. That is why it is the dominant historic trend.

Hong Kong and Taiwan have their own places in various global industrial chains and cannot "break free" from the big trend no matter how determined some local politicians may sound in pursuing unilateralism. The two regions must follow historic trends and embrace economic integration with the Chinese mainland.

Speaking of economic integration, how is the mainland economy doing, one may ask? Xi, in his speech at the import expo opening ceremony, compared the Chinese economy to a sea instead of a pond. It is calm and tranquil most of the time but can be turbulent when storms hit. However, storms can overturn a pond, but never a sea. This analogy resonated very well with the audience because it speaks the truth. Although the Chinese mainland economy has been adversely affected by the trade row initiated by the US but its fundamentals are still solid. It maintained the growth rate of GDP at 6.7 percent in the first three quarters of this year, one of the best among major economies of the world.

Hong Kong's economic aggregate is about 3 percent of the mainland's, while Taiwan's is four times Hong Kong's. Their lack of economic diversity renders them much more vulnerable than the mainland economy in the face of disturbances. At a time when other major economies around the world are struggling, what is the way out for Hong Kong and Taiwan? Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen did everything she could to "save" the local economy without integration with the mainland but failed miserably, which is why her DPP lost in so many local elections last weekend and she had to take the blame for it.

Economic integration requires public support, which comes from popular consensus. Kaohsiung voters turned their backs on the DPP this time because the local economy was all but ruined by the latter's refusal to cooperate with the mainland. Han won not because of his economic savvy but because of the city's desperate need for fundamental policy changes. Likewise, most voters in Kowloon West chose Chan instead of Lee because Chan cares very much about economic development and improving people's well-being whereas Lee is all about playing political games. Looking ahead, getting on board the "mainland express" is the only way for the two regions to achieve long-term prosperity and stability. It is not only in keeping with historic trends but also with popular demand.

The article is an abridged translation of a commentary published in Ta Kung Pao on Wednesday, Nov 28.

(HK Edition 11/29/2018 page8)