The upcoming Legislative Council by-election in the Kowloon West constituency carries very special meaning for the establishment, says Gary Chan Hak-kan, the "vice-prefect" of the pro-establishment camp lawmakers.

Chan is also vice-chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, the city's biggest political party. In the March by-election, DAB member Vincent Cheng Wing-shun was the pro-establishment candidate and he created a small miracle to win, beating an opposition candidate and becoming the first pro-establishment candidate to win a geographical by-election.

This time around, they have agreed to support Rebecca Chan Hoi-yan, the political assistant to former secretary for food and health Ko Wing-man, to represent the pro-establishment camp in the by-election on Nov 25.

"Vincent won last time. If Rebecca wins again, this shows the opposition no longer enjoys any more advantage in 'single seat, single vote' type LegCo by-elections," he told China Daily.

"Moreover, the pro-establishment camp will gain an upper hand in both divisions of lawmakers returned from geographical and functional constituencies, making it easier to pass further necessary amendments to the Rules of Procedure - although we have no urgent plan to amend the rules again."

Passage of non-government motions raised by lawmakers requires support votes from more than half of the lawmakers present in both divisions. Pro-establishment lawmakers always outnumber the opposition in the functional constituencies. At present, the ratio of pro-establishment lawmakers to opposition lawmakers is 17-16, with two vacant seats. If the pro-establishment camp wins the November by-election, it will open up a two-vote lead, dominating both divisions and taking away the opposition camp's veto power.

"The pro-establishment camp is behind Rebecca Chan in the election campaign and we hope she will win," the vice-prefect of the pro-establishment camp said.

"Her background is different from Vincent's. Vincent has been a district council member in that area for 10 years and has experience in district services and electioneering.

"Rebecca lacks district work experience. But that can be an advantage because as a novice, she gives people a fresh impression with vitality. She is familiar with policies, having worked in the government. But we need to train her to debate with opponents at election forums."

The DAB leader is not complacent and predicts a difficult election campaign for Chan because Lee Cheuk-yan is not an easy candidate while Frederick Fung Kin-kee has strong ties in Kowloon West.

Chan has no idea of what the voter turnout rate will be but guesses it will be more or less the same as in the March by-election.

The turnout rate for by-elections is generally lower than that of general elections. In March, Cheng not only consolidated the votes of pro-establishment candidates secured in the 2016 LegCo general election, but also gained new votes to see off his main opponent by 2,000 ballots.

By the end of the nomination period on Oct 15, six persons had signed up for the by-election. They are: Lau Siu-lai (disqualified), Frederick Fung, Rebecca Chan Hoi-yan, Lee Cheuk-yan, Ng Dick-hay and Tzeng Li-wen.

joseph@chinadailyhk.com

(HK Edition 10/18/2018 page4)