The Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) has revealed recently that the government approved a 50-year land lease over Sha Tin Racecourse in June. Since the lease, which was renewed in 1997, expired in June 2012, HKJC has been operating the Sha Tin Racecourse under short-term extensions. Some would say that this is a natural decision by the government, since HKJC is one of the biggest taxpayers in Hong Kong. Take this year for instance; the HKJC contributed more than HK$20.9 billion to the government. But what is worth noting is that the renewed lease, if signed this year, will expire in 2066, which goes past 2047, the year when the "No change for 50 years" promise in the Basic Law expires.

Actually, there are still 31 years to go until the year 2047, and the 2047 topic is simply a pseudo proposition created by members of the anti-government camp for their own suspect motives. The late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping once

promised that Hong Kong people could continue to "dance and race horses" under the "One Country, Two Systems" policy for 50 years after 1997. It should be noted that "No change for 50 years" is not the same as "going to change 50 years after". Some mischievous people have deliberately mixed up these two entirely different concepts and made some shocking statements to attract public attention. They claimed that by 2047 there would only be "One Country" but no "Two Systems" in Hong Kong, in which case, the existing rights of Hong Kong people regarding land tenure would be greatly weakened.

Spreading rumors can make people panic, but if we have a sensible understanding of Hong Kong history then we won't be easily fooled. In the 1980s, because the "lease" of the New Territories to Britain would expire in June of 1997, the time limit of land use became the biggest concern of people investing in land. Therefore, the UK took the initiative to negotiate with China over Hong Kong's future after 1997. The result of the negotiation is known to all - the UK had to hand Hong Kong back to China since it fully understood that the unequal treaty signed in the 19th century could no longer rationalize its governance of the city.

An in-depth analysis further exposes the conspiracy behind the 2047 rumor. The timing of the 2047 rumor was calculated deliberately. At the moment, the duration of mortgage loans approved by banks can be as long as 30 years; if the 2047 rumor were widely accepted by the public, in a few years' time people would start worrying that no bank would offer a mortgage extending beyond 2047. By then, public panic could be triggered easily and the real-estate market would become turbulent. A shaky and unstable housing market, in turn, would lead to public unrest. Antipathy toward the government would emerge - which is what the troublemakers really want.

The renewal of the 50-year lease of Sha Tin Racecourse is great news; it will help maintain the stability of the housing market and eliminate public worries over the "2047 deadline". However there are still procedures to go through, including approvals from the Town Planning Board and the district council, before the lease renewal process is completed. It is reported that the Jockey Club has proposed several ways to improve recreational facilities and physical culture, plus other facilities, while discussing the land lease with the government. In recent years, HKJC has spared no effort in improving the leisure and physical equipment in the district: Since the last quarter of last year, the opening days of Penfold Park in the Sha Tin Racecourse have been extended from five days to seven; HKJC is also planning to increase public facilities in the Sha Tin Racecourse which will be open to all people. These measures, I believe, will gain support from the district council, and the procedures for lease renewals will be smoother.

Given the precedent of Sha Tin Racecourse, I believe it won't be a big problem for Happy Valley Racecourse to renew its lease after it expires in 2034. This means that Hong Kong people can "continue to dance and race horses" even after 2047 - "50 years after 1997". This shows that "One Country, Two Systems" is working well and it has quashed the 2047 rumor.

(HK Edition 10/27/2016 page11)