It will be about two months before the political reform bill comes before the Legislative Council for a vote, but it looks now that the probability of its being vetoed yet again is very high indeed. Such a possibility becomes even more likely, should there be a not-too-bad voter turn-out for the May 16 by-election, giving the opposition camp a morale boost.

After any veto, as in 2005, there would be finger pointing from both sides seeking a culprit in the flop. Since the establishment side has amply demonstrated its sincere desire to move forward and has made nearly all concessions possible within the prescribed constitutional boundaries, and because it is the opposition legislators who would perform the voting-down act on an apparently reasonable bill, the blame will more likely fall on them. Since they know they are fighting an uphill PR battle, they will try to make very loud noises before the veto and make a big scene afterwards.

Like most people in Hong Kong, I would very much like to move even a small step forward towards the implementation of universal suffrage. But I have to remind myself time and again that there is still life after the veto. What we need is a democracy that is conducive to the betterment of our welfare, a good democracy, not just any quickie.

Such a healthy and robust democracy can only be achieved through a strong rapport among citizens here and between the SAR and the Central Government. This takes time, and if the situation is not ripe, waiting a little longer may not be such a bad idea. There is no hurry. In fact there is no urgency to merit any drastic action, except for that suggested by the highly irrational impatience of the opposition, which after so many years of nuisance from them, we are now forced to ignore.

While preparing for the worst, we can still strive for the best outcome. With this mindset in the background, about 60 days remain for us to try to win some of the opposition legislators over. We will try our very best to lobby them and convince them that positive action is the right move to take, and a second veto will be counter-productive to democratic development in Hong Kong, and will not gain the support from the general public. The good news is we only need three converts to make the mission possible.

The author is a member of the Commission on Strategic Development.

(HK Edition 05/04/2010 page1)