Taiwan will post growth rate of 5.11 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010 amid an overall economic recovery, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) forecast Monday, revising its previous prediction of 4.81 percent.

The latest figure represents a reversal from a 1.87 percent GDP contraction recorded in 2009, the TIER said in its monthly economic report. The institute also forecast that annual economic growth will reach 9.64 percent in the first quarter of the year, followed by 7.19 percent in Q2, 3.11 percent in Q3 and 1.52 percent in Q4.

TIER Macroeconomic Forecasting Center Director Chen Miao said the upward adjustment of GDP growth in 2010 was made after researchers observed trends, including an increase in plans for corporate expenditures and an ability to launch investment projects.

Judging from that, TIER predicted that the investment growth rate will rise to 15.3 percent this year, while exports of both commodities and services will grow by 16.92 percent, Chen said.

In terms of private consumption, Chen said, TIER kept its previous forecast of 2.07 percent growth unchanged because the researchers did not see any factors that would affect the growth rate.

In the TIER report, Taiwan's exports are projected to grow 26.83 percent and imports by 33.87 percent this year, which would translate into a trade surplus of $24.879 billion.

China Daily/CNA

(HK Edition 04/27/2010 page4)