As many as five Russian companies may follow billionaire Oleg Deripaska's United Co RUSAL and list in Hong Kong by 2012, said Elena Khisamova, head of equity capital markets at the investment banking arm of VTB Group.

"That's my estimate based on the active discussions we're having with Russian issuers," Khisamova said Thursday in an interview in Hong Kong. "I would say for three of these companies this is serious."

Deripaska's decision to list RUSAL, the world's largest aluminum producer, in January highlighted Hong Kong as an alternative to London for Russian companies seeking capital.

Political ties strengthened between Russia and China last year as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin agreed to 20 years of oil supply contracts with Asia's biggest energy consumer.

The Russian companies likely to forge ahead with a Hong Kong listing are "first-tier" producers of coal, iron ore, copper and energy, Khisamova said. Miners of precious metals and platinum may follow later, she said.

"Apart from Russian natural resources players, which are the primary interest of Asian investors, it will be quite challenging to offer anything else that Asian funds are keen to invest in at this stage," Khisamova said. Asian investors know and follow commodities "very closely," she said.

OAO Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer, and VTB, both controlled by the government, will "quite likely" follow RUSAL to Hong Kong in 2011, said Chris Weafer, chief strategist with Uralsib Financial Corp.

Rosneft spokesman Vladimir Voyevoda declined to comment. VTB spokesman Andrey Kochkin said he couldn't immediately comment.

Rosneft, which trades in Moscow and London, posted a $6.5 billion profit from $46.8 billion in sales last year, according to Bloomberg data.

Siberian Coal & Energy Co, or SUEK, Russia's largest producer of coal burned for power, is also among companies looking at an Asian listing, according to Uralsib Financial Corp.

SUEK spokesman Alexei Naumenko declined to comment.

Bloomberg News

(HK Edition 04/16/2010 page3)