TAIPEI: Taiwan's economy is expected to grow by 4.81 percent this year thanks to a rebound in private investment amid an overall economic recovery, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) forecast yesterday.

The institute also forecast economic growth for the four quarters of this year of 8.65 percent, 5.33 percent, 4.17 percent and 1.74 percent, respectively, according to its president David S. Hong at a seminar on the 2010 economic outlook.

The 2010 fixed investment growth rate is predicted to reach 4.64 percent because of local businesses' increasing interest in investment and the government's promotion of six emerging industries. Those are expected to attract investment from government and state-run enterprises, Hong said.

This year, Taiwan's exports are projected to grow 10.51 percent and imports by 10.13 percent, which would translate into a trade surplus of $32.74 billion, Hong said.

With consumer confidence climbing because of the stock market rally and an improved employment picture, private consumption is expected to grow 2.07 percent this year, he said.

However, a 2.07 growth rate would be still very low compared with the average 8.4 percent between 1952 and 2000, and lass than the average 2.28 percent between 2000 and 2008, he added.

TIER has also forecast that the Taiwan currency will stand at an average of NT$31.395 against the greenback this year, and the annual growth rate of the Consumer Price Index will be 1.54 percent.

The institute gave an optimistic forecast for the manufacturing and the service sectors in the next six months based on an economic outlook survey released yesterday.

The survey results show that the business climate index in the manufacturing industry last December stood at 117.15 points, representing a rise of 0.05 points from the previous month.

The December business climate index in the services industry stood at 125.21 points - a growth of 2.79 points from the previous month, according to the survey.

Meanwhile, retail sales are expected to soar during that period on the strength of booming restaurant and retail business during the Chinese New Year, TIER forecast.

China Daily/CNA

(HK Edition 01/27/2010 page2)