TAIPEI: Tourism Bureau chief Janice Lai said yesterday that the estimate of NT$30 billion in tourism revenues this year from mainland tourists was not a hyper forecast, but rather a careful calculation based on tourist consumption behavior.

Lai stressed the significance of having more mainland tourist arrivals and refuted an analytical report by the Institute for Business Development (IBD) that stated the Tourism Bureau had overestimated the benefits.

The IBD report released earlier yesterday indicates that tourism revenues from mainland visitors over the past months have been far below the expectations of the Tourism Bureau, with the number of visitors and their level of spending in Taiwan falling short of the estimates.

Lai challenged the accuracy of the analytical report on grounds that it was based on IBD interviews with tour guides and the observations of some IBD researchers who posed as tour guides to collect information.

She pointed out that it would be difficult for tour guides to obtain a broad enough picture of the industry to make assessments.

Besides, since mainland visitors in Taiwan do not always remain with their tour groups as one third of the time is allowed for free movement, the tour guides might not be fully informed on the tourists' activities and consumption behavior, she argued.

Lai said there is no need for the Tourism Bureau to exaggerate to the travel sector the benefits of having more mainland tourist arrivals.

China Daily/CNA

(HK Edition 12/03/2009 page2)