HONG KONG: The next generation of media is headed for a brighter future, ruled by Broadband, says Jeffrey Cole, director of the Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg School for Communication. Professor Cole isn't speaking only of new media and software entertainment. Traditional media these days are fighting a battle for survival: newspapers, magazines, radio and television and the way back to prosperity is broadband, says Cole.

Cole was delivering a keynote address yesterday, to the opening session of the 2009 Cable and Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia (CASBAA) Convention. His audience is all too familiar with soaring production costs, static advertising revenues, and fragmented and dwindling audiences.

Delegates would appear to have every reason for dismay at what is happening to their industry. One would expect the mood would be grim but the mood was far from that.

"There used to be very predictable, consistent rules for the media," said Coke, "but now everything is coming apart. Surveys show that consumers began to abandon subscription for traditional media and now show little interest in paying for digital content. However, broadband will change everything and rewrite rules of media. I believe broadband will bring together all those things that have been coming apart."

Financial Secretary John Tsang opened the two-day convention with a welcome to delegates from 14 major markets with over 315 million subscribers. He predicted a bright future for digital terrestrial television (DTT) in Hong Kong, forecasting that the service soon would cover more than 85 percent of households in the city, with 11 channels of free programming. What's more important for the future of the industry locally was Tsang's reaffirmation of the commitment to turn Hong Kong into the greatest television hub in Asia.

Ronald Soong, chief technical officer of KMR Media Research Group, notes that family drama serials remain an important part of the future of television.

Residents of Hong Kong are able to receive more than 300 television channels through two broadcast networks: Asia Television Limited (ATV) and Television Broadcasts Limited (TVB), and several subscription networks including Cable TV Hong Kong (Cable) and Now TV (Now).

Cole said in the convention that too many channels overwhelm the audiences and they would always go with just a few of them. It proves to be true in Hong Kong, where the most popular Cantonese channel TVB Jade is the only predominant player in the market.

Director of Broadcasting Programme & Senior Teaching Consultant from The University of Hong Kong Jim Laurie said a report in 2007 demonstrated that TVB had about 70 percent the whole television market in Hong Kong, and ATV, although problem-ridden, still shared half of the remaining 30 percent. He believes the situation has not changed over the past two years.

Data confirm Laurie's argument. Although television seemed reset after the introduction of subscription networks, particularly Cable in 1998 and now in 2003, people's viewing habits do not seem altered much. During prime time from 19:00 to 23:00, more than 25 percent of Hong Kong's population is in front of the TV set.

There can be no disputing that young people today are veering away from television, especially to online games.

Laurie said although television faces unprecedented challenges from new media, this is not the Dark Age of Television. In the US, young people spend less time watching TV, but it doesn't mean they do not watch TV programs. They just watch them on the Internet or mobile phone, Laurie added. TV stations are adapting to the technology development by diversifying themselves to find a new way out.

Viewers are able to watch the newest episodes of dramas on the TVB website on the second day after they premiere, at no charge. TVB says it's an inevitable trend if broadcasters want to keep audiences who no longer are willing to sit for hours in front of the TV set.

Professor Cole said that the consolidation of media is inevitable since digitalization is the trend. He predicted there would only be a few media organizations left on earth in the future, but they would be bigger and more successful than ever before.

Saying that television especially broadcast networks are in peril is not groundless. Early this year, the New York Times said the big four networks in the US were facing a struggle to stay viable. Ratings overall continue to decline, which makes it even harder for them to justify the high prices for advertising.

However, Noelle Chiu, former executive media director from an AAAA advertising company, said although advertising agencies have more options these days, television is still their priority, because of TV's large consumer exposure.

(HK Edition 11/05/2009 page1)