Hong Kong is at risk of a pandemic influenza outbreak in the near future, and corporations should plan accordingly to minimize economic loss, experts said at a health forum yesterday.

The last influenza pandemic, also known as Hong Kong Influenza, occurred 40 years ago. The flu virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year, causing about 34,000 deaths in total.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) Outbreak Communication Centre, flu pandemics occur every 10 to 50 years, so the next outbreak is likely to occur in the near future.

"Hong Kong is at a more severe risk than other places," said Steve Paine, chairman of the AmCham Health and Wellness Committee.

The city is crowded and cross infection is highly probable, said Justin Cheng, medical director of the Hong Kong Specialists Medical Group.

He added pandemic flus are more serious than SARS, and the mortality rate would be significantly higher due to complications.

WHO estimated that the next influenza pandemic could infect up to one-fourth of the global population and cause worker absenteeism to hit 35 percent.

Francis Lui, professor at the Centre for Economic Development at the University of Science and Technology, said that kind of impact could cost Hong Kong at least HK$29 billion and as many as 140,000 lives.

"Hong Kong is an important part of the world supply chain, so the global economic impact would be tremendous if the city is attacked by a pandemic flu," Lui said.

He stressed the importance of preparedness, which he said could reduce economic losses by up to 30 percent.

"Local businesses have to prepare for pandemic influenza, as the government alone wouldn't be able to ease the social and economic impact," Paine said.

Cheng advised commercial companies analyse in detail what is essential during epidemics.

"One of the direct protections for companies to protect employees is the stockpiling of antiviral drugs," he explained, adding that the current government drug stock would be able to supply only 30 percent of the city's population should there be flu epidemic.

Cheng added that preparing for a flu pandemic could reduce absenteeism and speed up recovery in businesses.

Paine said Hong Kong has been doing relatively better than other places in preparedness, as 15 percent of local corporations already have plans in hand, while 15 percent are developing strategies.

(HK Edition 12/02/2008 page1)