In the summer of 2005, consecutive media reports suggested that Donald Tsang was at loggerheads with James Tien, and that Tsang also attempted to put pressure on the business sector to pull Tien out of the chairman post.

After going through a lean spell, their mutual relations began to soften following a number of reconciliatory meetings and private dinners. In fact, about two months before the voting of the electoral reform package, Tsang had met Liberal Party members quite often to seek their support on two issues in particular, Tien reveals. First, Tsang intended to decrease the number of appointed seats of the District Councils in the hope of getting the reform package passed. He also wanted the Liberal Party to talk to other political parties with a view to lifting the "consensus of the eight-party alliance" on the number of directorate government officers which was capped at 1,488 back in 2001.

"As a government-friendly party, we support the government without conditions and nor has the government asked us what we want to have in return," he tells reporters. "But recently, especially after the voting down of the electoral reform package, I have got a very clear message that the CE has drawn a fine line between friends and foes. He also says he will rely on and cooperate with us more, and he cannot afford one less vote from us. In the past, the government would not care how the Liberal Party voted as long as it could collect 30 or more votes from whoever."

Friends and foes

"At least for political issues, the SAR government will not talk to the pan-democrats and will not ask for their votes," Tien says. "However, neither the central nor SAR authorities have said that the Liberal Party must also keep a distance from the pan-democrats and whether (Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food) York Chow can talk to (Democratic Party Chairman) Lee Wing-tat on livelihood or non-political issues."

In his opinion, the "impasse" mainly applies to political issues and will not implicate livelihood and economic issues.

"The key factor is whether the friends and foes classification, and the stance towards the opposition camp come from Donald himself and whether he will allow himself enough space to manoeuvre," he points out.

It is thus Tien's view that it will be wise for Tsang to concentrate on economic and people's livelihood issues in the last 18 months of his term to strive to achieve greater popularity among the citizens and pave the way for re-election next year.

Tien also thinks Tsang will avoid such political "hot potatoes" in the remainder of his term as the West Kowloon Cultural District project and the medical financing scheme.

Political parties

Lately, the Article 45 Concern Group, Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions, and The Alliance are all planning to form political parties. But the Liberal Party chief does not think that too many political parties yet none of them are big enough will be good for political development in Hong Kong.

He notes that at present, the Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, the Liberal Party, Democratic Party, The Alliance, and the concern group hold 13, 10, 9, 5 and 4 votes respectively, but the rest are no more than "one-man parties" in the Legislative Council (LegCo).

"It is a very loose combination. From the chief executive's angle, life is easier for the government when power is so widely distributed, yet that is not too good for effective governance. I prefer the bipartite system in the United States and UK, where there are always the two big political parties who are in power. The good thing is that there will always be continuation in government and party policies, whoever is in the posts." He said that Hong Kong has a new chief executive and principal officials every five years, and it has a law stating that the chief executive cannot be affiliated to a political party.

"Today, the government is intending to enact a law to totally ban smoking in public places, but what happens if we one day have a chief executive or health minister who likes smoking?"

Still, he is not afraid of competition from the growing number of political parties, particularly when members of The Alliance also come mainly from the business sector. "When you talk about elections, I agree with the CE that it is all about LegCo geographical constituency and district council elections, but not LegCo functional constituency (FC) elections or appointed district council seats. In fact, I am more concerned with the Article 45 Concern Group than The Alliance," he says, referring to the fact that the five legislators of The Alliance all come from the FCs, and the voter source of the Liberal Party and the concern group slightly overlap.

Keen competition on EC seats

Now that electoral arrangements for 2007 and 2008 remain unchanged, Tien says he and the party's other veteran legislators have to rethink their retirement plan in 2008 because the 2008-12 LegCo term will be very crucial for future political development.

"We intended to occupy only the back seats and give younger party members the chance to move up. But as political development stands still, whatever changes or whether there is universal suffrage in 2012 must depend on the 2008-12 term. We are now asking ourselves if we have a very important role to play in 2008, and if we shall stay on to make voices heard by the central and SAR governments," says Tien.

And as the 2007 electoral arrangement and the setup of the 800-member Election Committee (EC) remains the same, Tsang does not need to buy favour from or make friends with the pan-democrats, noting that Lee Wing-tat was not able to secure the required 100 nominations for the CE by-election last year.

But he says he believes all concerned parties and the business sector will work very hard in future to get as many members as possible to sit on the EC.

It is Tien's view that even the pan-democratic camp, who used to derogate the CE election as a "small circle election", will participate actively in 2007. "The Liberal Party takes the EC election and the publicity campaign seriously. We will prepare members' information in attractive profiles as though they were taking part in LegCo elections," he said.

Talking about the 2006-07 Budget to be delivered on February 22, Tien believes Tsang will support Financial Secretary Henry Tang to give tax concessions, given that the economic and fiscal positions have improved significantly. "How can he compete in the 2007 election (if he does not give out any tax concessions)?" Tien says.

Mild tax concessions

But instead of cutting direct taxes or offering rebates of taxes or rates, what the government will most likely do is to reduce the salaries and profits tax rates back to the 2002-03 level over one or two stages.

"I don't think there will be any big actions because many professional bodies have told the government not to cut taxes simply because the situation has improved slightly. Neither will the people have any big expectations."

"I don't think the government will offer rates rebate to all the households, as it has declined the demand of the Wan Chai merchants affected by the WTO Sixth Ministerial Conference to exempt them from rates payment for one quarter only," he says.

(HK Edition 01/23/2006 page6)