China moves to fourth in global GDP rankings
Updated: 2005-12-14 08:53
China is likely to declare itself the world's fourth largest economy next
week, having leapfrogged Italy, France and Britain, after a widely expected
revision of its annual gross domestic product figures.
Economists say the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which is due to
release part of the results of its first national economic census on December
20, is likely to put a much bigger figure on the size of China's services
More than 20 Rolls
Royce were sold in China in 2004. The number will surpass 30 if bookings
are included. [newsphoto/file]
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is reportedly telling the East Asia
Summit Leaders Dialogue in Kuala Lumpur on Monday that China gross domestic
product (GDP) reached US$2 trillion in 2004 following an average economic growth
rate of a meteoric 9.4 per cent rise over the past 27 years, since 1978.
Chinese Government hopes to double that figure to US$4 trillion and raise its
per-capita GDP to at least US$3,000 by 2020, the English-languge national
newspaper China Daily quoted Wen as saying.
The Hong Kong-based The South China Morning Post, citing unnamed
economists, reported Tuesday that the agency would probably revise GDP by as
much as $300 billion, or about 20 percent of 2004 output.
A revision of that magnitude could catapult China from the world's
seventh-largest economy into fourth spot, now occupied by Britain.
Jim O'Neill, chief global economist at Goldman Sachs in London, said China
could attain that status even without such a big revision based on growth rates
and currency changes in 2005.
Not only has China grown far more quickly than Italy, France and Britain this
year, but the yuan has risen about 2.5 percent against the dollar, further
boosting its output when measured in dollars. The euro and sterling, by
contrast, have fallen.
"China could squeak in ahead of Britain even without a revision," O'Neill
said. "It just goes to show how much it's contributing to the world economy."