China to maintain 8% growth for 15 years
Updated: 2005-11-18 08:22
In the first 20 years of the 21st century, China's
economy will grow at an average rate of about 8 percent, said Xu Xianchun,
director of the Calculation Department of National Economy under the National
Bureau of Statistics Thursday.
Xu made the prediction at the International Forum on Productivity Development
During the next five years, China's economy will keep an annual growth rate of 8.5
percent, and by 2010, China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to exceed
26 trillion yuan (3.2 trillion US dollars), with per capita GDP 19,000
yuan, he said.
From 2010 to 2015, China's GDP is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8
percent, and by 2015, China's GDP is to exceed 42 trillion yuan, with per capita
GDP reaching 30,000 yuan (more than3,000 US dollars), he said.
From then on, China will be among the richer ones of middle-income countries
according to the 2004 standard of the World Bank, he said.
According to his estimation, by 2020, China's GDP is expected to exceed 60
trillion yuan, with a per capita GDP of over 40,000 yuan.
The main driving force of China's economic growth from 2000 to 2020 will still
be the rapid accumulation of capital, he said. Although the capital input contributes
less to the GDP growth, its contributing rate will still be as high
as 50 percent, he said.
Compared with capital, the contribution of labor input to GDP growth is
relatively small due to the change of China's populationage structure, he said.
The increase in the labor force will contribute about 6 percent to GDP growth
during the next five years, he said.
From the year 2010 on, with the change of age structure of the population,
the labor force growth will slow down.
Subsequently, its contribution to GDP growth will also drop to 3 percent or
so in the 2011-2015 period, and less than 1 percent in the 2016-2020 period.
The proportion of primary industry will go down gradually, and that of
secondary industry will tend to go down, while that of tertiary industry will
keep rising, he said.
During the next five years, the proportion of secondary industry will
continue to go up, because the growing energy demands lead to the expansion of
the energy sector. Higher investment rates lead to the increase of capital goods
From 2010 to 2020, however, the proportion of secondary industry will go down
step by step, along with the declining proportions of ore mining and
low-technique industries, while the proportion of the tertiary industry will
keep rising, along with arising income of households, their growing consumption
demands on services, and the expansion of the demands on productive services
caused by the rapid development of the industry, he said.
Along with the speedup of industrialization and urbanization in China, the
investment rate will tend to decline gradually, while the consumption rate will
rise gradually, he said.
By 2020, the investment rate is likely to be around 35 percent,while the
consumption rate is expected to exceed 60 percent, he said.