US scientist: Next human pandemic "inevitable"
(Reuters)
Updated: 2005-10-15 20:46

The next human pandemic is "inevitable" and the world must prepare now against bird flu and other potentially deadly viruses, a top U.S. government scientist said on Saturday.

"It's been over 30 years since we've had a pandemic, so inevitably we are going to have a pandemic within a reasonable period of time," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

"It's not a matter of when or if," he told reporters in Vietnam, where 41 people have died from the H5N1 virus that has now spread to Europe.

Fauci, part of a U.S. mission to Southeast Asian nations worst hit by the virus -- which has killed more than 60 people in Asia since 2003 -- said H5N1 was becoming more worrisome.

Test results on Saturday detected the highly pathogenic virus in Romania and confirmed its arrival in mainland Europe.

The virus was found last week in Turkey and experts say migratory birds may carry the disease farther.

"We as public health officials ... must assume the worst-case scenario and H5N1 is now giving us a lot of signs that is becoming a little more worrisome, if not a lot a more worrisome, because of the events that are going on," Fauci said.

Experts fear H5N1 could mutate into a virus that spreads easily among humans, triggering a pandemic that might kill millions. But another strain could set it off due to the evolving nature of influenza viruses.

"That's why we are preparing so intensely for H5N1 as well as any other pandemic," said Fauci, an adviser to the White House on AIDS issues and on preparing communities against possible biological attacks.

Led by Health Secretary Mike Leavitt, top U.S. and U.N. health experts toured poultry farms, markets and discussed pandemic preparedness plans with officials in Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam this week.

The United States has pledged $25 million in training and equipment for a regional surveillance network in the hope of containing a human outbreak before it spreads.

Other rich nations have pledged funds, but the World Health Organization said on Friday Southeast Asia needs $260 million to fight bird flu in the short term.

FOREST FIRE

Leavitt, who travelled to the port city of Haiphong on Saturday where he met a Vietnamese man who survived the H5N1 virus, compared the bird flu threat to stamping out a forest fire before it raged out of control.

"If our surveillance is good enough and we can be there and we can get there before it has a chance to spread, it's a great strategy," he said. "The chances of that happening are not good."

Thailand and Vietnam have had some success in containing the virus with culling and vaccination, but have not wiped it out.

The picture is more bleak in Cambodia and Laos where experts fear a lack of resources and infrastructure could see a human outbreak go undetected until it was too late.

The spread of the virus has also been blamed on backyard farms and open-air markets where humans and birds often mingle in unsanitary conditions.

Leavitt, who saw chickens and ducks cut up and sold at a street market in Hanoi on Saturday, said age-old behaviours may be the toughest to overcome.

"It's evident that the interaction between birds and people and animals is a significant part of this culture. I don't think we'll change that," he said.