Arroyo seen winning key vote, but troubles remain
(Reuters)
Updated: 2005-09-04 15:21

MANILA, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is expected to survive an impeachment vote in the Philippine Congress on Monday, but that is unlikely to draw a line under a months-old crisis that has hurt her presidency, analysts say.

In a setback for the opposition, a Congress committee packed with Arroyo's allies rejected on Wednesday impeachment complaints against her over allegations of electoral fraud and graft.

The opposition needs one-third of lower house votes to overturn the committee report, but it remains short of the 79 required to keep the impeachment process alive and send Arroyo for a trial in the Senate that could oust her.

Analysts said Arroyo's solid majority in Congress should ensure she wins Monday's vote, allowing her to head off on diplomatic visits to Saudi Arabia and the United States this month without the cloud of impeachment hanging over her.

But it may turn out to be a hollow victory, leaving doubts over the president's credibility that may return to haunt her.

"What good does it do that she avoids being impeached, but loses her moral right to govern? That is the question," political analyst Randy David wrote in the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

The opposition is unlikely to give up its bid to unseat Arroyo even if it loses the vote, which will begin on Monday but may not be completed until Tuesday.

It is barred by law from filing a new impeachment complaint against Arroyo within a year.

But Benito Lim, professor of political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the opposition could use other legal means such as going to the Supreme Court to contest the committee's rejection of the strongest impeachment complaints.

"She may well win this round, but then there are the next few rounds," he told Reuters. "It does not mean that she is out of the woods yet."

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