GDP growth likely to slow down in second half
(Agencies)
Updated: 2005-07-12 10:47

China's economic growth will slow to 8.6 percent in the third quarter and to 8.2 percent in the fourth amid government efforts to make growth more sustainable, the China Securities Journal quoted a think-tank as predicting.

That would take full-year growth to 8.8 percent, significantly lower than 9.5 percent seen last year and in 2003, the paper quoted a report by the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Institute as saying.

The slower pace of growth would be in accordance with government efforts to adjust macroeconomic controls and would not mean that China would enter a cycle of low economic growth in the coming years, the paper quoted the think-tank as saying.

The property market, which has been a focus of government efforts to cool investment amid rapidly rising prices in major cities, would slow significantly, the paper said, adding there were no assurances that a soft landing in the sector could be achieved.

Export growth would also decelerate significantly, while a tight credit environment would put the brakes on investment, it said.

China has entered a mild slowdown that could last one to two years, a senior official from a powerful government agency said on Monday, recommending faster credit growth as an antidote.

China's gross domestic product in the first half of the year was 9.1 to 9.2 percent higher than a year earlier, estimated the official, Chen Dongqi, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Institute.

Since first-quarter economic output was up 9.4 percent on a year before, the commission's half-year estimate suggests a slower second quarter. Official second-quarter data is due this month.

The government has been trying for the past two years to rebalance the economy, promoting consumption while discouraging investment in sectors that it reckons are growing too fast, risking a bust.

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