Judgment Day for Arroyo as Philippine bishops meet
(Agencies)
Updated: 2005-07-09 11:31

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo faces judgment day on Saturday with the influential Catholic Bishops Conference set to issue a statement that is expected to join the chorus calling for her to resign.

Arroyo's prognosis took a dramatic turn for the worse on Friday when one by one the bastions of the Philippine establishment deserted her: her economic managers, corporate chieftains, civic groups and political allies.

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (L) attends a meeting with former president Fidel Ramos at the Malacanang presidential palace in Manila July 9, 2005. [Reuters]

The bitterest blow came from an old friend and ally, former president Cory Aquino, who called on Arroyo to make the "supreme sacrifice" because "good and effective government has become an impossible undertaking."

Officials and analysts said her exit was not a matter of if but when -- and how. Few want to see the president bundled out of office in another "people power" revolt.

"That consensus now is that the tipping point has been reached," said University of Philippines political science professor Alex Magno.

Combo photo shows six of the eight members of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's cabinet, who resigned a day earlier, answering questions during a news conference at Ateneo De Manila University in Manila July 9, 2005. The cabinet members asked for Arroyo's resignation, as she faced pressure over an election scandal. Seen clockwise from top left to right are, former education secretary Florencio Abad, former presidential advisor on the peace process Teresita Deles, former national anti-poverty commission secretary general Imelda Nicolas, former social welfare secretary Corazon Soliman, former finance secretary Cesar Purisima and former trade secretary Juan Santos. Former budget secretary Emilia Boncodin and former agrarian reform secretary Rene Villa, who also resigned, are not pictured. [Reuters]

"There is little time to spare. The longer it takes the President to respond to the well-meaning calls for her resignation the direr the scenarios become."

Arroyo, whose mandate runs until 2010, is facing the toughest test of her four years as leader over allegations that she tried to influence the vote-count in last year's presidential election and that family members took kickbacks from illegal gambling.

Catholic church sources said the nation's bishops were leaning toward asking Arroyo, who attends Mass every day and calls God her best friend, to sacrifice herself for the good of the nation in a statement to be issued on Saturday afternoon.

The church has traditionally played a politically powerful role in this predominantly Catholic nation and has been at the forefront of two popular revolts that toppled presidencies.

MILITARY NEUTRAL

In Manila, the military and police were on the highest level of alert. General Efren Abu, the military's chief of staff, has ordered troops not to intervene in the political crisis.

Fears of military intervention always bubble up in time of political stress in a country that has seen 19 attempted coups or mutinies over the past two decades.

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo holds a manifesto of support during a meeting with metro-Manila mayors, pledging their support to the president, at the presidential palace in Manila July 8, 2005.[Reuters]

Arroyo, while admitting to a lapse in judgment for talking to an election official last year while the presidential vote was being counted, has denied any wrong-doing.

She is adamant that she will not follow in the footsteps of her predecessor, disgraced president Joseph Estrada, and be forced from office by popular pressure.

"I was duly elected to uphold the constitution," Arroyo said on government radio on Friday. "I say take your grievances to Congress where I am very willing to submit to due process."

Two impeachment complaints have been prepared against Arroyo, whose majority in the lower house of Congress is likely to quash any attempt to oust her.

Estrada's fate -- still under house arrest more than four years after his overthrow and on trial for economic plunder -- is clearly a deterrent to giving in.

Arroyo, a U.S.-trained economist and considered not very politically savvy, is the daughter of late president Diosdado Macapagal. She was Estrada's vice president before being swept into the presidential palace on a "people power" tide.

Now her own vice president Noli de Castro, a popular TV news anchorman before he entered the political arena four years ago, is poised to take that route.

GRACEFUL EXIT

Former president Fidel Ramos, one of the few establishment figures still in Arroyo's corner, has offered a plan that would give her "a graceful exit."

He has proposed a change in the two-house congressional system that would see Arroyo stay on as caretaker president until fresh elections for a single-chamber parliament in May 2006.

Arroyo, who said on Thursday the political system required fundamental change, has made no secret of her own desire to move to a parliamentary system to speed up passage of laws.

Some analysts said financial markets would have liked Arroyo's main economic managers to stay on to steer reforms aimed at improving weak revenue collection and cutting debt of nearly $70 billion.

The peso neared its historic low against the dollar on Friday before recovering to close at 56.10. Bonds slumped but stocks rose, with analysts expecting any leadership change to be peaceful.

"Even a swift Arroyo resignation would be unlikely to settle matters as Vice President de Castro has questionable support among the elite," David Fernandez, research head for Asian emerging markets at JPMorgan, said in a note to clients.

Anti-Arroyo protests have been feeble by Philippine standards with no sign of the rage behind the "people power" uprisings that ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 and Estrada in 2001.

Speaking for eight cabinet members on Friday, Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima said Arroyo, who had demanded resignations from her entire cabinet to give her a fresh start at governing, had pre-empted their plans to quit.

"The longer the president stays in office, under a cloud of doubt and distrust, and with her style of decision-making, the greater the damage," Purisima said.

The Liberal Party, a government supporter, and the Makati Business Club, which groups the heads of many major companies, said her departure would help get economic reforms back on track and eliminate tensions.

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