Global warming is reaching the point-of-no-return, with widespread drought, crop failure and water shortages the likely result, according to a new international report highlighted in the British press.

The countdown to climate-change catastrophe is spelt out by a task force of senior politicians, business leaders and academics.

In 10 years or less, they predict, the catastrophic point-of-no-return may be reached, The Independent daily reported.

The new study, "Meeting The Climate Challenge", has been timed to coincide with British Prime Minister Tony Blair's promised efforts to advance climate change policy this year as head of both the G8 group and the European Union.

The report was assembled by the Institute for Public Policy Research in Britain, the Centre for American Progress in the United States and the Australia Institute.

The international task force made up for 14 members including professor Ni Weido from Tsinghua University in Beijing was set to release its report today.

In the report, the task force calls not only on G8 countries but also on all of the world's large economies, including China and India, to take drastic action to reduce climate change.

The report says the danger point will be signalled when temperatures rise by 2 degrees centigrade above the average world temperature prevailing in 1750.

But it points out that global average temperature has already risen by 0.8 degrees since then, with more rises already in the pipeline - so the world has little more than a single degree of temperature latitude before the crucial point is reached, the paper said.

The consequences of such a rise could include widespread agricultural failure, water shortages and major droughts, increased disease, sea-level rise and the death of forests.

The researchers calculated the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere after which the 2-degree rise will become inevitable, and say it will be 400 parts per million by volume (ppm) of CO2. The current level is 379ppm, and rising by more than 2ppm annually - so it is likely that the 400ppm threshold will be crossed in just 10 years.

(China Daily 01/25/2005 page7)