While Sudan's north-south factions and the international community are
celebrating the January 9 signing of a peace accord, observers say a
number of issues must be addressed in order to begi n the healing of Sudan
and maintain a viable state.
To implement the accord's political power-sharing provisions, a new
constitution must be written so that Sudan People's Liberation Movement
leader John Garang can be sworn in as First Vice President of the new
"unity" government.
The SPLM is also guaranteed a percentage of the jobs in that
government.
However, Human Rights Watch Sudan analyst Jemera Rone doubts the major
posts will be fully shared with southerners. "There will be a lot of squabbling about who gets what
ministries," he said. "Traditionally, southerners get very minor
ministries. I don't expect them to get any of the key military, energy or
foreign policy institutions."
Military power will also be shared under the peace agreement. The
government's troops and those of the SPLM known as the Sudan People's
Liberation Army are to merge into a unified force. But as Bathsheba
Crocker at the Center for Strategic and International Studies points out,
there also has to be an effort to bring other rebel forces into the fold.
"It will be very important to see how things like the various militias
are handled by the parties and by the international community and the
international peacekeeping force," he said. "It's critical to see what
kind of mandate the international peacekeeping force has and whether it
can really undertake the kinds of actions that will be needed."
United Nations special envoy to Sudan Jan Pronk says he expects a U-N
Security Council resolution to be adopted very soon that could authorize a
peacekeeping force of up to 10,000 soldiers.
A focal point of Sudan's economy is oil - with proven reserves of about
635 million barrels. Marina Ottaway, with the Carnegie Endowment for Peace
in Washington, explains why north-south cooperation is essential to share
control of oil revenue as the accord provides. "The south in this
agreement does not get control over the entire oil revenue. It receives a
portion of it. The south will never be able to control the oil fields
militarily if the northern government opposes it."
Sudan's refugees problem is considerable. Some estimate that about four
million people were displaced during the more than two decade north-south
conflict. Jemera Rone at Human Rights Watch describes the peace accord's
refugee provisions, and the problem such a lengthy conflict has created.
"The principle that all have agreed to is no one is supposed to be forced
or prevented from returning home. However, there are so many of these
people who have been refugees and displaced for so long that it's not
likely that all of them will go back."
Ms. Rone and others say the key to resolving the refugee issue will be
the Sudanese government's maintenance of security and adhering to human
rights principles. They also say a concerted effort to create employment
through economic development beyond oil is essential.
Many who follow developments in Sudan say such a damaged country cannot
heal by itself. They implore the international community to continue to
provide all possible assistance and to keep a sharp eye on any
developments that threaten the hard-won and carefully balanced peace that
has finally arrived.
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