A recalcitrant Taiwan: A self-destruct option
Lau Guan Kim  Updated: 2004-09-24 08:52

Concerning China's attempt at a peaceful reunification with Taiwan where it is apparent to all that whatever attempts, the Taidu in political power concoct every hurdle to frustrate reunification.

As long as Chen Shuibian calls the shots in Taiwan, all hopes on peaceful reunification will founder. We are dealing with a man whose legal profession makes him wily and cunning - a certain ploy to have independence without the destruction that comes along with it.

As of this moment, Chen Shuibian invokes the 'nostalgic' memory of Japan's colonial rule with his open courting of Japan's claimed ironclad submarine defence under its elite SDF (Self-Defence Force). Ostensibly then that was to deter the design of the now defunct USSR's formidable Far East fleet, but underlying it is eventual conflict with China or a perception that China has designs on Japan.

Precisely because of Japan's fear of a resurgent China, such covert manifestation has become increasingly overt and eventual pulling off of the pacific tarpaulin to reveal a mothballed array of awesome military hardware bristling for action with the Hinomaru waving imperialistically and defiantly in the sun.

What Chen Shuibian hopes were this localised Japanese might can be flamed to take on China once Taiwan decides on an armed conflict. That is why he banks on Japan's dormant desire to make a comeback to Taiwan

Surely the ambivalence of the US in making a clear stand whether it would militarily align with Taiwan once it declares independence makes Chen Shuibian to court Japan assiduously at whatever price, even to make Taiwan a protectorate of Japan. This is to bait an apprehensive China to attack to draw in the US, since the latter clearly defines that no backing if Taiwan starts the war.

It all goes to show Chen Shuibian is insidiously using Japan as a borrowed sword to decapitate China. Looking behind all these cunning moves is the hope that Japan's ultranationalist force can be on the ascendancy.

The question now is: Would Japan allow itself be duped by Chen Shui-bian and his Taidu cohorts?

It looks increasingly like the whole reunification process from the Mainland side is a no-starter, and to borrow a favorite expression of Henry Kissinger, it is an "exercise in futility." Underlying this recalcitrant Taidu stance is the sour grape syndrome that a 'president' of Taiwan, and all his cohorts, will lose many of its political perks and power.

The only impossible solution, and one where the whole Chinese nation will never allow, is to concede the president of Taiwan is also the president of China.

It is saying as much as China is part of Taiwan, and not Taiwan part of China.

Since that is not a realisable dream of a Taidu president of Taiwan, his only tricks of the cards left is to play a disruptive role and drift the island further away from China with its own putonghua, the Fujian dialect and a set of new Fujian Pinyin.

Another recent attempt was a remark made by Li Denghui that Southern Chinese are not Han or Chinese, for the militarily strong political north subjugated them long ago.

In other words, these Taidu politicians want China to break up, and if possible, to align with Taiwan. Hence we now understand why Li Denghui suggests China to fragment into seven pieces.

Herein lies the true meaning of Li Denghui's designs. Harking back on the Warring States (Zhanguo Shidai 430-221 BC) when China was a fractious domain of seven contending states that vied for supremacy before Qing Shihuangdi of Qin Dynasty (221-206 BC) united China as one nation under heaven.

What Li Denghui suggested then was for China to be back to its weak and quarrelling status quo of the Warring States to be no 'danger' to Taiwan..

If ever Taiwan declares independence there are three factors that prompt the precipitating action: (1) A tacit nod from the US, with no more pretence that it adheres by the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué, (2) Revival of Japanese militarism under the ultranationalists using Taiwan as a marionette, and (3) China is at a stage of a crab moulting its shell, such as widespread internal rebellion and uprising, or busily preparing or hosting the 2008 Olympics in Beijing.

In either scenario, China has to make good its threat to invade Taiwan if it gravitates towards declaring independence, or allows the territory as a springboard for the US's or Japan's designs on China; otherwise its credibility with rebels and dissenters is gone. An inaction here may invite restive moves from XinJiang Uygur and Tibet, for this can be perceived as weakness of the Chinese government.

A chain-reaction may set up with Taiwan financing and covertly encouraging separatism from other minor ethnic groups.

It is not lost on the Chinese that the status quo of Taiwan must not be allowed to undermine the cohesiveness and stability of the nation. Hence on this premise, China has no option but to make good its threat.

There is one ultimate deterrence China may still have, and that is to make it known in no uncertain term the total annihilation of Taiwan once a war begins. The concern of the US will be minimal on this threat of China, for the former will welcome such drastic step because the annihilation of Chinese by Chinese will be a bonanza that so distracted and weaken the Mainland for Pax Americana to wax mighty and unrestrained.

The case for the US fanning Taiwan independence is strong, as its nightmare is the vast array of advanced weaponry that may fall into Mainland China once Taiwan is defeated. Therefore the US will do everything it takes, where possible short of direct involvement, to give Taiwan the edge.

As usual, at least two US aircraft carriers will be steaming to Taiwan, but not in the Strait. China at this stage is well prepared for a Strait War involving two US aircraft carriers, and its cheap short range missiles will be so cost effective with it saturation.

To tip the balance to the advantage of the US if there is a military involvement, recent disturbing report of some 7 of its 13 carrier groups massed in the proximity of China for a war game.

Already two computer-simulated wars in the Strait between the US and China showed China came out the victor. It was not known whether this simulation involved two US carrier groups or all of its 13 carriers.

Chen Shuibian had been reported to promote the concept of forward deployment, which is for Taiwan to fight a war on the Mainland. At best this is dangerous thinking and a daydreaming out of reality of the true weakness of Taiwan.

Another intimidating stance of Taiwan was a front-page picture of Chen Shuibian reviewing the air force, with the long row of spic and span F-16s in the background.

Impressive Taiwan's air-force may seem, it has to factor in the stark reality that this air-force has only one function, and that is to be airborne and hope it can bomb China and land somewhere in China; or make the way back to Taiwan, ditch the planes and bailout near to Taiwanese shores to be rescued. The obvious fact is once airborne for attack on Mainland China, the Taiwanese planes will have no runways to land in Taiwan, for the saturated M9 and M11 missile attacks will take care of that.

Another less likely scenario, but possible if the Taiwan A-pingko (soldier) adopts a kamikaze reminiscent of Japan in its last hour. But the A-pingko has too much to lose to fight for the few diehard Taidu that he would rather surrender and be assured of a good treatment as POWs of its own Chinese brethren.

So, the danger to the Taidu in political power is that Taiwanese soldiers may defect or surrender, to live their days with their loved ones under a spacious lebensraum within the one-nation concept.

The pertinent question to the A-pingko, who finds greater opportunity in Mainland China because the cry of 'tongwen tongzhong' (same culture, same race) must he spill blood for an independence that will bring no end of turmoil in the long run. Already more and more of his Taiwan compatriots are seeking business, education and residence in China. An independent Taiwan will just be a pawn of the US and Japan, and it is not lost on a saying in Fujian, that 'it is better to face the fanny of your son than the sour face of your son-in-law'.

I have read and studied several articles, which indicate to me that China was not bluffing when it said it would attack Taiwan once the island declared independence.

To me this is not the '50s and '60s nuclear and missile -weak China that the US 7th Fleet can sail with impunity through the Taiwan Strait to show the US colour to deter (intimidate?) the Mainland.

The analysis here is Taiwan, a small island, cannot absorb China's frontline short-range M9 and M11 missiles carpet bombing, even if it has the most advanced missiles and planes from the US.

China's objective is to initiate an IW (information war) where the island's vital computer network will be hacked and put out of action, thereby causing havoc to communications and safety of air traffic. The missiles will pockmark the air bases with craters 100-metre wide to render them unusable for its sophisticated F16s or other more advanced planes; and if already airborne, have no bases to return to. Being more than 60% mountainous, it has scarce flat land to build more runways.

From north to south, and east to west, Taiwan has no space for military manoeuvre. To avoid concentration of all it troops for the PLA to have a great turkey shoot, it will have to fight in smaller battalions rather than divisions. That is where the sheer number of the PLA will annihilate them

Taiwan's hope is in a decisive battle. What decisive battle if the match is between a domestic cat and a tiger? Decisive what? When Taiwan has no space to manoeuvre?

China can accept a casualty of 10 million, which puts Taiwan population of 23 million to decimation if the island wishes to match the same casualty. It takes only two minutes from the dividing line in the Strait to reach Taipei, but Taiwan will have longer distances to travel to hit vital cities in China.

Finally China can absorb heavy bombardment from Taiwan, and to achieve total success, Taiwan's economy will be crippled to sustain the war effort, if it can at all afford to. There is no such consideration for China, as Taiwan is small and can be totally bombarded at a minuscule fraction of the cost of Taiwan's response against China.

The dice is fully loaded against Taiwan!

The above content represents the view of the author only.

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