In the past 25 years, China has made great strides in its economic development and transition to a market economy. It has emerged as one of the major powers in the international arena, and the pace of economic reforms is accelerating with the implementation of the nation's commitments to the World Trade Organization.

The rise of China appears to be only several decades away, but China's spectacular economic growth over the next several decades is by no means a certainty. The success scenario will only materialize if the nation effectively clears the major obstacles on the way to its "great rejuvenation."

Globalization, increasingly rampant separatist activities and unsettled border issues pose a serious threat to China's future fate.

Against the backdrop of economic integration generated by globalization, no nation can keep itself from the rest of world for very long. That is because the world has come to a stage where individual countries' prosperity relies upon the prosperity of others to a far greater extent than in the past.

Integration also means that transnational actors such as multinational enterprises and non-governmental organizations have a powerful influence on what happens to nation states. As a result, the capacity of states and their leaders to promote human security and well-being within an enclosed territorial space has been weakened.

China is not exempt from the sovereignty-diminishing dynamics of globalization.

The force of globalization is not the only one that is disturbing China when it comes to the issue of sovereignty and territorial integrity. There are also forces of fragmentation at work that are causing troubles for China. Some of these forces began to manifest themselves with astonishing strength, and the most important of them is separatist activities.

Apart from the thorny Taiwan question, China has to spend considerable resources, that otherwise can be used to raise the living standards of the people, to deal with separatist activities in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and combat the anti-China political activities aimed at splitting Tibet from the rest of China by exiled Tibetans. What it made matters worse, these separatist activities, to varying extents, gain covert support from external forces, even some major powers, which undoubtedly adds to the difficulties in China's efforts to maintain its territorial integrity.

Moreover, the pending disputes between China and neighbouring countries over territory and waters, including the South China Sea and the Sino-Indian boundary issue, remain a source of potential conflict.

The shift in the strategic posture in the areas surrounding China, especially after the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States, complicates China's security environment.

Whatever its intentions, Washington's actions since the September 11 terror attacks have resulted in a virtual strategic encirclement of China.

Under the banner of fighting terrorism, the United States squeezed into Central Asia, which had long been under Russian influence. On the Korean Peninsula and around Japan, Washington has completed the rearrangement of its military forces aimed at enhancing the level of battle efficiency. Elsewhere in the Pacific, US forces have moved back to the Philippines, with which China has disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea. Moreover, Washington has upgraded the level of military co-operation with Australia.

Meanwhile, some countries' military build-ups and contingency legislation purporting to deal with terrorist threats add to the uncertain security situation in the areas surrounding China.

In addition, China's sense of unease was heightened by the increase of destabilizing factors in its surrounding areas which found expressions in unstable political and social situations in neighbouring countries, the by-products of the anti-terrorist war in Asia such as tension between Muslims and US forces, and rekindled regional issues such as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea nuclear issue.

One of the gravest dangers China faces lies in US efforts to impose the Western-style "democratic" system on other countries, which poses a serious challenge to China's stability.

Although the Cold War that divided the world along ideological lines has ended, the United States has not given up its attempt to politically integrate China into an international order that it dominates. In recent years, the United States has incessantly hurled scathing but groundless criticisms at China's political system.

China is also confronted with many cultural challenges.

Western cultural infiltration and expansion aimed at westernizing China is nothing new. As early as the beginning of the Cold War, the United States had operated a sophisticated, substantially endowed cultural front against the socialist countries. In this battle for people's minds, such forms as journals, books, conferences, seminars, broadcasts and even music were systematically used to influence the opinions, attitudes and behaviour of people in the socialist countries.

The end of Cold War worsened rather than improved China's cultural security situation. The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the political transition of the Eastern European countries meant China had to bear the brunt of cultural invasion and propagandistic warfare. More importantly, the development of information technology marked by the use of the Internet enhances US ability, thanks to the US dominance in cyberspace, to force Western concepts of human rights, liberalism, and democracy into other civilizations.

China prided itself on basic self-sufficiency in crude oil just a few years ago. But now, China has surpassed Japan to become the second-largest consumer of the world's crude. And almost half of its oil imports come from the Middle East.

The ever-increasing dependence on the Middle East seems very dangerous because of the current volatility in the regional security situation.

Economic security is also one of the serious policy issues facing China in the years to come.

China's increasingly close economic links with the outside world not only expands China's interests, but also raise the possibility of China's collision with other countries in the economic field.

What is more, deep engagement in international organizations and accords severely tests China's capacity to fulfil international obligations.

(China Daily 08/14/2004 page4)