OPEC ministers said oil prices above US$30 a barrel may be here to stay, four years after agreeing that US$25 a barrel is acceptable for both producers and consumers. Crude closed at a record US$41.72 a barrel on Monday in New York.

Members including Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela said they want prices at the top end or above the official Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) target of US$22 to US$28. The Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said crude at US$30 to US$34 a barrel in New York reflects the current costs of investing and maintaining oil fields. The nation is the world's largest oil exporter.

"We need to find a new band as a reference that will guide investors," Edmund Daukoru, the adviser on oil to the president of Nigeria, OPEC's fourth-largest producer, said in Amsterdam, where energy officials from more than 50 countries met for three days. "It's unrealistic to think of US$22 as the floor."

New York crude oil prices have averaged US$29.17 a barrel in the past four years, compared with US$19.84 a barrel in the previous four years, in part because of agreements by OPEC to restrain supply. OPEC members have said the effect of inflation and the drop in the value of the US dollar against other currencies such as the euro means higher prices are warranted. Crude has been above US$30 a barrel since December 3, 2003.

Crude oil futures touched US$41.83 a barrel on Tuesday in electronic trading in New York, 2 cents shy of the record set last week in two decades of trading. OPEC ministers have argued that rising prices stem from conflict in the Middle East and concern about potential gasoline shortages, rather than a lack of crude oil.

The more than 50 countries attending the ninth International Energy Forum, the collection of oil producers and consumers that closed on Monday, agreed that oil prices need to come down, without saying to what level.

The gathering "expressed concern regarding the current high price level," Dutch economy minister Laurens Jan Brinkhorst said at a news conference. "Economic recovery worldwide, and especially in developing countries, would benefit from stable oil prices at a reasonable level."

US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham also said current levels are too high and urged oil producers to increase output.

India, the world's second-most populous country, called on OPEC to help lower oil prices which the country says are hurting developing nations. "For developing nations like India, the price of US$41 is extremely high," BK Chaturvedi, India's petroleum secretary, said in Amsterdam. "US$24 or US$25 is fine."

Saudi Arabia is increasing production after the US and other industrial nations warned that near-record prices threatened to slow economic growth. OPEC will decide in less than two weeks whether to ratify a Saudi plan to increase official production targets.

"There's never an ideal price," Daukoru said. "It's always too low for the seller, it's always too high for the buyer. It's the price that everyone grumbles about but still can live with."

Four years ago, OPEC decided to seek prices between US$22 and US$28 a barrel for an index of seven crude oils. When oil producers and consumers gathered that year for the International Energy Forum in Riyadh, they formed a tentative consensus that prices of about US$25 a barrel would satisfy both sides.

Now, the group is studying the possibility of changing its target range, and Venezuela plans to propose an increase in the range at the group's meeting on June 3 in Beirut.

(China Daily 05/26/2004 page12)