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More than 90 file in California recall race
( 2003-08-10 14:46) (Washington Post, US)
The field of candidates running in
California's recall election took clear shape today as a final flurry of
contenders turned in qualifying papers before this afternoon's deadline and
joined a race that is engulfing the state in political
turmoil.
By midday, more
than 50 had formally put their names on the ballot in hopes of succeeding Gov.
Gray Davis if a majority of voters removes him from office in the Oct. 7 vote.
The recall election, nearly unprecedented in the nation's history, will feature
some of California's biggest and wealthiest names from politics, business and
Hollywood, along with a large chorus of gadflies and
exhibitionists.
八八
Two prominent Republicans
in the race, film star Arnold Schwarzenegger and millionaire
businessman Bill Simon, submitted their campaign paperwork today, as did columnist
Arianna Huffington, who is running as an independent. California Lt. Gov. Cruz M.
Bustamante, who said he opposes the recall but wanted to give his party a
safeguard if Davis loses, appeared to be the lone prominent Democrat on
the ballot. Former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, who led the 1984 Summer
Olympics in Los Angeles, is running as an independent. State Sen. Tom McClintock,
a GOP conservative, is in the race, too. Another prominent Democrat, Insurance
Commissioner John Garamendi, announced today that he had changed his mind about
running.
八八
Schwarzenegger told a crowd of supporters outside the Los
Angeles County elections office, "I promise you I'll be the people's governor. I
will be there for everybody."
八八
Davis, meanwhile, continued to denounce
the recall as a dangerous carnival and warned voters not to be spellbound by the
film star's candidacy. Appearing Friday night on HBO's "Real Time With Bill
Maher," the governor said, "Leadership is more than snappy
one-liners."
八八
The close of candidate filing plunged California into
the next act of an extraordinary political drama that will play out over the
coming 58 days -- an election with broad implications for the future of the
state and the potential to ripple into national
politics.
八八
Californians have endured three years of calamity in state
government, beginning with the energy crisis of 2001 that led to rolling
blackouts and continuing to the present day with massive budget deficits and
bitter partisan battles among lawmakers.
八八
The recall also represents a
test of the political process itself. The campaign already is a spectacle
bordering on farce, and the question of whether this is any way to determine who
runs the nation's most populous state will be at the forefront of the debate
over the next two months.
八八
Some analysts said this weekend that what
had begun earlier this year as a campaign by a few Republican activists to get
rid of Davis may be exploding into more general rage against the political
system, a variation of the grass-roots anger that propelled the 1978 tax-cutting
Proposition 13 to victory in California and changed the state.
八八
"It
feels like the ground is just beginning to shift on us," said Mark Baldassare of
the Public Policy Institute of California. "It's not just about Davis anymore,
or about Republicans trying to steal an election. There seems to be more at play
among both Democratic and Republican voters."
八八
The extensive coverage
of the recall election assures a national audience. "This is not restricted to
California's borders," said Don Sipple, one of Schwarzenegger's advisers. "Like
Prop 13, this has the potential to spread nationally very quickly. As much as
[some people] despise direct democracy, the people like it. It has certain
pitfalls, but people feel powerless against a system that shuts them
out."
八八
Democrats disagree. "What's happening in California is very
personal to Gray Davis," said pollster Geoffrey Garin. "It is not a broader
statement about government. To the extent this becomes a referendum on politics,
the proponents of recall are as much on trial as Governor
Davis."
八八
Davis has proven to be the ultimate survivor in California
politics, and no one is counting him out yet. He is a known, if not beloved,
quantity and a methodical, if not inspired, campaigner. His support plummeted at
the start of the energy crisis more than two years ago and never recovered, but
even in his weakened condition he won reelection last
November.
八八
Schwarzenegger's
candidacy offers something totally different, a glamorous, untested action star who could
implode over the course of the campaign or -- as Jesse Ventura did in the
1998 Minnesota governor's race -- excite and turn out citizens who rarely participate
in the political process. President Bush embraced the Schwarzenegger candidacy on
Friday, but the actor's path to the governor's office is by no means clear,
given other candidates on the ballot.
八八
That ballot will ask voters to
answer two questions. The first vote will be up or down on the question of
recalling Davis. A simple majority favoring recall would drive him from office
with three years remaining in his term.
八八
The second question, which
will be relevant only if the recall wins a majority, is who voters want to
replace Davis, and the winner will be determined by a simple plurality, meaning
the next governor could be elected with 25 percent or 30 percent of the
vote.
八八
Davis advisers said they have been encouraged that in the
frenzy of the past week, they have seen no significant increase in support for
recalling the governor -- although they said they could not be certain of that
until they see fresh polls in the coming week. They said that in the polls they
have looked at, a slender majority of Californians favor recalling
Davis.
八八
About 25 percent of Democrats currently favor the
recall, including a substantial percentage of Latino voters. Davis advisers said
the key to their strategy will be to persuade about half of those disaffected
Democrats and some fraction of unaffiliated voters who now support the recall to
vote against it by attempting to discredit the process as a political circus
that is bad for democracy.
The Davis strategy has been complicated by the
decision of Bustamante to put his name on the ballot, fueling perceptions that
many Democrats believe Davis may not survive and want a backup strategy to keep
the governor's office. Democratic leaders were so worried about having a second
major Democrat -- Garamendi -- on the ballot, they strongly pressured him not to
run. "I know firsthand that this recall election has become a circus," Garamendi
said today. "I have concluded I will not engage in this election as a
candidate."
Davis advisers say the party's best hope is to stay focused on
defeating the recall. "When the dust settles, I believe the overwhelming
consensus of Democrats will be, no matter how many names there are on the
ballot, the simplest and easiest way to get an outcome we want is to beat the
recall," said Davis pollster Paul Maslin. But because many Californians who vote
against the recall may not vote on a replacement, Democratic leaders have begun
to coalesce around Bustamante to prevent a splintering of the Democratic vote.
Schwarzenegger begins in the enviable position of being seen as the
frontrunner whose candidacy has ignited a media frenzy and given him unrivaled
access to the voters to deliver his throw-the-bums-out message. But in the
coming weeks his campaign also is likely to face many challenges.
One of
the biggest may be dealing with conservative GOP voters, a group that is in
fervent support of ousting Davis and most likely to show up at the polls. In
last year's governor's race, conservatives derailed the front-running campaign
of another moderate Republican, former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan. There
are already signs that they are not merely suspicious of Schwarzenegger's
candidacy -- but are preparing to attack it.
One Christian conservative group, the Traditional Values Coalition, has organized a
campaign committee against the film star, who has spoken in favor of abortion
and gay rights. Its leader, the Rev. Lou Sheldon, told the San Jose Mercury
News, "As governor, Mr. Schwarzenegger would be a darker villain than any he has
faced in his movies."
Schwarzenegger could lose many conservative votes to
Simon or McClintock. Despite his bumbling campaign against Davis last year,
Simon won 44 percent of the vote.
"People are underestimating the impact of
Simon entering the race," said Ken Khachigian, a GOP strategist. "The people who
voted for him last year are the ones we know are going to vote in the recall.
They are grass-roots conservatives -- they are not watching 'Entertainment
Tonight,' and they are not going to be starry-eyed over Arnold."
Other
strategists say Ueberroth could drain votes from Schwarzenegger among moderate
Republicans and independents.
A Schwarzenegger adviser conceded those
potential problems but said the recall is such an unusual election that those
assumptions may not be as important as they are in a Republican primary. The
real challenge for the film star is to make Davis the focus of the campaign.
"It's impossible to do it right now," said one adviser. "But I think it's
incumbent on the Schwarzenegger candidacy to define what this campaign is
about."
The outcome could have an impact on both national political
parties. California has been a Democratic stronghold in the past four
presidential elections, but the loss of the governor's office could give Bush
and the Republicans an opening to put the state in play in 2004. But having
gingerly stepped into the recall on Friday by saying kind words about
Schwarzenegger, Bush could be touched by the fallout if Republicans fail to oust
Davis.
Sanchez reported from Los Angeles, Balz from
Washington.八八
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