BEIJING -- China's sizzling economy should grow 10 percent this year and
next, propelled by surging exports, but the region could be hurt if its
investment boom sours, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.
In a semiannual report on the world's economic outlook, the IMF also added to
calls for Beijing to raise the value of its currency, the yuan, saying that
would help to cut its huge trade surpluses and boost households' purchasing
power.
China's strong performance should help to drive growth in other Asian
economies from South Korea to Indonesia, said the report, released in Singapore,
where the IMF will be holding its annual meeting Sept. 19-20.
"There is the possibility of even faster-than-projected growth in China," the
report said.
But it warned of potential risks from an investment boom that the government
is struggling to contain.
Beijing has raised interest rates twice this year in an attempt to rein in
heavy spending on apartments, factories and shopping malls that boosted economic
growth to 11.3 percent in the second quarter. Chinese leaders worry that the
boom could ignite inflation or leave borrowers and banks with dangerously high
debt.
"The current exceptionally rapid investment growth could lead to
overcapacity, falling profits and balance sheet problems in the corporate and
financial sectors," the IMF said.
It said such problems would affect other emerging Asian economies due to
China's growing importance in regional trade.
The report said China's trade surplus should remain strong, standing at the
equivalent of 7.2 percent of its total economic output both this year and in
2007 -- double the share in 2004.
Frustrated by such surpluses, Washington and other trading partners are
pressing Beijing to raise the yuan's government-controlled exchange rate. They
say it is too low and gives Chinese exporters an unfair price advantage, hurting
competitors and threatening jobs abroad.
Allowing the yuan to rise would help to cut the surplus and "give the central
bank greater control of domestic monetary conditions," the IMF report said.
"Exchange rate appreciation would also bolster housesholds' purchasing power,
which, together with reforms to the financial sector, would boost consumption,"
it read.
The IMF also called for more reform in China's financial industries to
strengthen their ability to cope with changes in interest and exchange rates as
the country opens further with the world economy.