Opinion
"Prophet' hunting for future profits in Asia
By ED Zhang (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-05-31 15:03
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Nobuyuki Idei, former Sony Corp chairman and group chief executive officer, said paving the way for a new generation of entrepreneurs is important, especially when economies are seeking new models and politicians are expected to deliver new leadership. Provided to China Daily |
Visionary unveils concept of Globalization Phase II led by the East
BEIJING - Chatting with Nobuyuki Idei, former Sony Corp chairman and group chief executive officer, on a flight is a rare experience. It was like flying to the future, propelled by his powerful ideas.
The future world's horizon is broad, although it isn't exactly lit by a bright sky and decorated with attractive, puffy white clouds. Indeed, the present part of the journey is being conducted in twilight, in a world in need of leadership, he says.
There are many uncertainties and changing opportunities for China, Japan and the Asia region at large. No one can be sure how well they will adapt to their new roles. But although officially he is retired, Idei is busy enjoying what observers are calling his "second act", acting as a sort of visionary prophet between the past, present and future in the east and identifying where businesses can profit.
During his many trips to China and other Asian countries, he talks and networks with corporate leaders, offering to provide forums for them to share their ideas. He travels to China almost on a quarterly basis. In Beijing, he also sits on the board of the Internet search company Baidu.
Paving the way for a new generation of entrepreneurs is important, Idei manintains, especially when economies are seeking new models and politicians are expected to deliver new leadership.
This sense of mission comes from how he sees history. "I read many history books," he said, adding that in his view we are at the end of "Globalization Phase I", an era that started with the industrial revolution in the UK in the 18th century and which was led by the Europeans and Americans all the way to the beginning of the 21st century.
Now he says we are at the threshold of "Globalization Phase II", in which Europe and the US are no longer solely at the helm. It is a game featuring "a much larger population and much larger complexities" such as the financial and information networks driven by the ever more powerful connecting technologies and trends.
"In a way the recent trouble at Toyota is not just one company's problem," he said. "It is a micro-example of a challenge to all companies and even all governments."
In Globalization Phase I we have learned industry, he said. "We have built large manufacturing processes and have nearly perfected every operation of them. And we have had a system to match that development."
But in Globalization Phase II, "we are only at the initial stage in learning how to integrate, how to manage all the potential of the digital technology and how to build a system to help the world".
Governments can do the work of governments, of course. There are G20s and Asia's dialog mechanism on financial and currency matters. However, according to Idei, a man famed for the speed with which he acts, their rate of progress is often too slow.
"The private sector should also make its contribution". By that, he means not just the private sector in North America and West Europe, but also in Asia.
Using Toyota as an example, Idei said he didn't mean to be critical. It is just a pertinent and recent example with which to illustrate the changing times. "In a way, Japan is a bigger Toyota. Now that China and India are racing forward in indusrialization with the same speed but carrying a much larger weight than Japan once did, they may begin to face the same challenges soon. We are all Toyotas," he said.
New challenge
A modern automobile, such as a luxury Toyota model, relies on as many as 150 or so computers working together, Idei said.
"So on the one hand you have built such an enormous industry and you have to keep it going but, on the other hand, the challenge you face is no longer industrial but primarily a challenge of how to build software, to integrate and process information."
More importantly, in facing the new challenges, Asia and all emerging economies in the world are basically running from the same starting line as North America and West Europe.
The problems that are facing the mature economies now will soon be felt in today's emerging economies thanks to their rapid development. It is time for them to work together to think what they can do and, hopefully to find what resources they can use to create happiness for the people in Globalization Phase II, Idei said.
The peoples in Asia have proved to be quite capable of learning modern industry as it was first invented in England, with Japan doing so most quickly, followed by the Pacific-rim economies such as Korea and Taiwan and now, on a much larger scale, by China and India.
In 20 or so years, not many Asian economies will remain agricultural. All the major ones will be mainly industrial, with the cities accounting for more than half of their populations.
Idei is quite candid about the key to quick learning. "We have come up with almost no inventions," he said. "We became strong in industry by focusing on perfection, refining the details by transforming the tradition of our devotion and our art."
For the last 20 or so years China has mirrored the Japanese development experience in building itself into a factory for the world and in having all the consequent trade and currency disputes with the US. "Seeing China's trouble with the US now reminds me of the days when I was working in Sony: trade disputes followed by a continuous rise in the yen's value." This, in turn, was followed by government intervention in spending heavily to sustain the jobs.
All of these scenarios followed set formulas, he said. And all these set formulas belong to Globalization Phase I. In Globalization Phase II, in contrast, there are not many, if any, set formulas and successful models. All countries are at the initial stage. They will all try to seek more leadership and more innovations - in the economy and in government, he said.
Changing roles
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Idei admits to a strong confidence in Asia. He says the experience of a unified Europe using a common currency is not immediately applicable in Asia.
However, he adds that if Asian governments and private sector leaders can succeed in managing their diversity and achieving inter-dependency, their experience can be meaningful for the rest of the world in Globalization Phase II. For example, he says, "Only Asians can bridge with the Muslims. It is not an Asian tradition to make one god fight with another."
Among other countries Idei visits are Malaysia and Indonesea. Idei's company, Quantum Leaps Corp of Japan, is a key organizer of an annual Asia Innovation Forum in Japan. He also on the board of trustees of the Asian Business Council, the first pan-Asian chief executive officer group to seek a collective voice.