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BIZCHINA> Top Biz News
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Disney dream over for speculators
By Andrew Moody, Li Xiang and Zhou Yan (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-11-09 07:45 Time zone follies News surrounding the Disney project often emerged in the United States, when all but the most financially active were fast asleep in their beds in China. "You have news released in different time zones, which creates perfect opportunities for arbitrage. Those who got access to the information earlier could act upon it when the market opened in Shanghai. In the modern world, there is no way you can stop these arbitrage opportunities," Guppy said. Many believe the media itself has played a huge part in adding to the speculation and destabilizing the market through the drawn-out affair. To give just one example, Shanghai Securities News reported on August 8 that the Pudong local district authority had settled major issues surrounding the project with Disney.
This triggered a strong market reaction. The price of companies such as Jielong plunged sharply after consecutive hikes in the previous few days. This seemingly perverse behavior was following a classic Chinese pattern of how "stock prices hit the ground when rockets are in the sky", not dissimilar from the Western concept of buying on the rumor and selling on the news. "The supportive news reports were often released at a time when the market had reached its peak," Li Ran, the Beijing investor, said. "A lot of small investors like myself sensed that possibly some institutional investors were using media organizations to spread rumors so as to misguide us," Li said. Guppy said it is difficult to establish whether someone was deliberately trying to manipulate the market by planting false leads and making sure they appeared in some influential publication at key moments. "The off-again, on-again nature of this project adds to rumor-driven price rises. If we say a rumor is deliberately planted, that is a type of market manipulation, but it is very difficult to prove. You see this very often," Guppy said. All the Disney speculation has brought into question whether Chinese markets need tighter regulation. Some of the unusual trading patterns seen recently might have led to investigations by the authorities on Wall Street or in London. Li Jianfeng, an analyst with Shanghai Securities, wonders, however, whether more exacting regulations would have protected smaller investors from the volatility. "Regulators will and should investigate obvious price manipulation. But it is often hard to stop it in the first place, because investigations often come after the manipulation which has already resulted in losses for investors," he said. Missing the ride Very few have shared in the Disney stock market bonanza. Just a few kilometers away from the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the Chuansha township in Pudong district, local residents have failed to benefit from any of this speculation. It is far too early for any signs of construction. As the trees sway in the late autumn winds, the site has a desolate look with only a modest cluster of farmers' homes in sight Min Rongchun, a villager who ploughs a small plot in Zhanghang, one of the villages that make up the area, said he has yet to be touched by any of the Disney glamour. "We've heard about the coming of Disneyland for over a decade, but Mickey Mouse has yet to affect our daily lives," Min said. Like other farmers, he is aware that he could be the recipient of a financial compensation package. Already, most of the farmland around the proposed site has been fenced off using green mesh wire. "It's been much talked about that we can get higher compensation from the government for Disneyland usage if the lands are fenced, and everyone in the village is making sure they have fences," a farmer surnamed Liu said. James Macdonald, head of research at estate agents Savills in Shanghai, said the economic benefits for those living in the area might not prove to be that great. "There will likely be some uplift to the residential market in the immediate area from services and facilities that are constructed in order to support Shanghai Disney. There may also be a larger uplift to property values for projects where residents are relocated for construction of these facilities," MacDonald said. "This impact is still limited by the location, as it is far from the city center. Residential values will still be significantly lower than in inner parts of the city," he said. There also has to be a question about whether the Disney park will prove to be the real commercial success that all this speculating has seemed to imply. Parita Chitakasem, research manager at research organization Euromonitor International's Singapore office, said there is already tough competition in China from attractions such as Window of the World in Shenzen, JinJiang Amusement Park and Beijing World Park.
The real winners in all of this could, indeed, be the speculators. The question is whether they will go away now that the project has been announced. Many believe the values of companies directly linked to the project such as those with land banks will deter any more of this activity. "They no longer have the value for investment. The development of the land will soon be taken over by the government once the project enters the first-phase construction," said Li from Shanghai Securities. "In fact, we have already seen some of the shares of companies that have been part of the Disney speculation, but which do not have any real business in the project, start to show weak performance," he said. Li said the only companies that are likely to do well from the project are the ones in it for the long term. "Companies that could possibly lead the next round of growth are those in infrastructure, tourism, transportation and the retail sector which will likely gain real benefits from the project," he said. It may be that China's many speculators will now have to look for their next target. There will be few to match the roller coaster stock market ride provided by all the Disney Fantasia.
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