NDRC sees 08 GDP growth at 11%, CPI at 4%

Updated: 2008-01-24 09:16

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2008 is projected at 11 percent, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising about 4 percent, according to Fan Caiyue, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's economic planning agency.

In an article published on the official China Securities News, Fan said 2007 GDP is seen at 24 trillion yuan, up 11.5 percent, with CPI at about 4.7 percent.

CPI will continue growing rapidly in the first half of 2008 and slow in the second half, Fan said.

CPI was up 4.6 percent in the 11 months to November 2007, with growth in November at 6.9 percent - the biggest surge since December 1996 - driven mainly by food prices.

Fan said 2008 growth will be held down by tighter monetary policy and the weaker US economy.

Export growth will also decelerate due to the yuan's appreciation and dampened demand as a result of the economic troubles in the US.

Fan estimated China's 2008 trade surplus at $320 billion, up 22 percent.

He projected investment growth to continue at high levels in the first half, growing at 23 percent for the full year.

Fan said the authorities need to keep an eye on external risks, including a slowing US economy and increasing resource prices. Domestically, he added, the trouble spots include rapid growth in food prices.

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