The composition of China's exports has begun to change rapidly, away from
reliance on cheap, low-margin goods to more value-added manufactures offering
much higher profits, according to a number of new reports.
While sales overseas of low-end goods are in many areas stagnating, often
because China's penetration of foreign markets is already so high, exports of
telecommunications equipment, auto parts software and ships have grown by
between 30 to 150 per cent since 2005, according to a Deutsche Bank report.
The change means China is increasingly competing against developed countries
in industries in which it used to be a bit player, and will also provide ballast
to the country's high and politically sensitive trade surplus.
"Across a wide range of machinery and industrial intermediate goods, China is
now a net exporter," said Arthur Kroeber, of Dragonomics, a consultancy, in
Beijing.
The transformation has been driven by factors ranging from rising Chinese
wages, which have pushed some low-end manufactures offshore, to increased policy
support for higher value-added goods.
China's nimble and growing private sector has also helped accelerate the move
up-market, because of its ability to take advantage of opportunities more
quickly than the state sector.
"Private enterprises have been growing much faster than state enterprises,
and many of the private firms have moved quickly into the high-end products to
capture the market and profit margins," said Jun Ma, chief China economist for
Deutsche Bank.
The bank estimates high-end exports will grow for 30-40 per cent a year for
the next three to five years with some sectors, such as auto parts and software
outsourcing, possibly enjoying a sustained expansion "for even longer".
The high-end goods have less market share and therefore have space to grow,
whereas cheap traditional exports, such as toys, where China already has 80 per
cent share of US imports, have run out of steam.
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